Wednesday, May 27, 2009

The 2009-10 Season Night By Night

This post looks at the coming Fall season on a day by day basis. The aim is to try to handicap the season and pick the winners and losers. Needless to say this is an inexact "art" – because calling it a science is absurd. Several "rules" apply in looking at this stuff. For one thing, no show from The CW will win a time slot for a season. I won't say never ever – after all they used to say that about FOX back when they were airing shows like Werewolf and look where they are now. They just aren't going to do it this year or for a long long time. The other major "truth" is that in a battle between an established show and a new show, the established show has an advantage, particularly after the show has had a second season. The more established the show the greater the likelihood that it will knock out a new series. Of course the term "established" is a relative term, and it is possible – likely even – that there is a tipping point where an older show loses audience because people are becoming tired of it. Not unlike the old er bull elephant that used to run the herd but gets bounced by a younger stronger bull. Still TV is like a lot of elections, where the incumbent has an advantage over the fresh face.

Before looking at things on a night by night basis, it's only appropriate to recognise the "gorilla in the room" which this year is NBC's decision to effectively abandon the third hour of primetime by scheduling The Jay Leno Show five nights a week. NBC apparently thinks that while the Leno show won't win every night of the week but they say it will win some nights and be competitive on others. I say they're delusional. I mean I understand what they're doing; they wanted to keep Leno on NBC on the grounds that its better to find something for him to do with the network than having him bitter and on another network attacking the show that he had been forced out of. The thing is though that in their ham-fisted way they've screwed the proverbial pooch. There were other ways that NBC could have reacted to the possibility of losing Leno. When Steve Allen left the Tonight Show in 1956 the network kept him with the once a week Steve Allen Show. I wouldn't be surprised if NBC would have been able to keep Leno with a similar arrangement. But of course NBC – in the person of Jeff Zucker, who has spoken on this – is convinced that putting scripted programming on during the third hour of primetime is part of a broken programming model. Doing five hours a week of Leno is cheaper than five hours of scripted programming and Zucker has stated that advertisers will respect the network based not on ratings but on corporate profitability. But an advertiser is "buying eyeballs" – and more importantly the "right" eyeballs – and Leno is not going to deliver in that area. He is unlikely to win his time slot on most nights and possibly not any nights, but more importantly Leno is most likely going to finish third every night in the 18-49 demographic which everyone acknowledges is a key factor for advertisers. So NBC has committed itself to a model that is probably more broken than the one they are rejecting. Worse, it's a position that they can't gracefully retreat from if the ratings are as bad as a lot of people think they are going to be.

Times are Eastern, and new shows are in capitals (except NCIS and CSI).

Sunday


ABC

CBS

Fox

NBC

The CW

7:00-7:30

America's Funniest Home Videos

60 Minutes

The O/T

Football Night In America

Local

7:30-8:00

America's Funniest Home Videos

60 Minutes

The O/T

Football Night In America

Local

8:00-8:30

Extreme Makeover Home Edition

The Amazing Race

The Simpsons

Football Night In America

Local

8:30-9:00

Extreme Makeover Home Edition

The Amazing Race

THE CLEVELAND SHOW

Sunday Night Football

Local

9:00-9:30

Desperate Housewives

THREE RIVERS

Family Guy

Sunday Night Football

Local

9:30-10:00

Desperate Housewives

THREE RIVERS

American Dad

Sunday Night Football

Local

10:00-11:00

Brothers & Sisters

Cold Case

Local

Sunday Night Football

Local

There are a couple of changes here of which the least is probably The CW's decision to turn the night back to the affiliates for first run syndication. The network has been floundering on Sunday nights since UPN and The WB merged and last year's debacle with the Media Rights Capital shows pretty much proved that the network can't find a successful formula for the night. The major changes are the two new shows – The Cleveland Show and Three Rivers – and the decision to move Cold Case to the third hour. The Cleveland Show seems to be a good fit between The Simpsons and Family Guy but how things will shake out later in the year when the show is supposed to move to the slot currently occupied by American Dad is anyone's guess. The big battle is going to be between Three Rivers and the established Desperate Housewives. NBC's Sunday Night Football siphons off a big chunk of the male audience which leads to the belief that the two scripted shows will be fighting over the female audience. In this Desperate Housewives might be presumed to have an advantage. However the relative success of Cold Case in the time slot would suggest that the audience for an alternative to football and Seth MacFarlane animation isn't as homogeneous as one might think. Couple that with somewhat flagging ratings for Desperate Housewives over the past season, the presence of Moonlight heart-throb Alex O'Laughlin in Three Rivers, and there would seem to be some play how well the newcomer will do in the time slot. I still think that Desperate Housewives will come second in the time slot – effectively a win amongst the shows that aren't Football – I wouldn't be surprised to see the show continue to weaken and Three Rivers pick up viewers. Whether Cold Case can survive the move to the third hour is a different question. In recent years ratings for CBS shows on Sunday nights have weakened as the night progressed. Cold Case is an established show but the question is whether it will carry its audience to the later time slot.

Monday


ABC

CBS

Fox

NBC

The CW

8:00-8:30

Dancing with the Stars

How I Met Your Mother

House

Heroes

Gossip Girl

8:30-9:00

Dancing with the Stars

ACCIDENTALLY ON PURPOSE

House

Heroes

Gossip Girl

9:00-9:30

Dancing with the Stars

Two and a Half Men

Lie To Me

TRAUMA

One Tree Hill

9:30-10:00

Dancing with the Stars

The Big Bang Theory

Lie To Me

TRAUMA

One Tree Hill

10:00-11:00

Castle

CSI: Miami

Local

Jay Leno

Local

This is the first night when the "Leno Effect" will be felt. I don't see too much hope for the 13 week NBC series Trauma up against Dancing With The Stars, the highest rated CBS comedies (Two and a Half Men and The Big Bang Theory) and even Lie To Me (though I worry about how well that show will do against the power house shows in that hour). I don't think CSI: Miami will have much trouble winning its time slot against Castle, but the latter shouldn't totally collapse and it should be strong enough to beat Leno. The one weak spot for CBS might be the new comedy Accidentally On Purpose. What I've seen of it doesn't really do anything for me.

Tuesday


ABC

CBS

Fox

NBC

The CW

8:00-8:30

SHARK TANK

NCIS

So You Think You Can Dance

The Biggest Loser

90210

8:30-9:00

SHARK TANK

NCIS

So You Think You Can Dance

The Biggest Loser

90210

9:00-9:30

Dancing with the Stars Results

NCIS: LOS ANGELES

So You Think You Can Dance

The Biggest Loser

MELROSE PLACE

9:30-10:00

Dancing with the Stars Results

NCIS: LOS ANGELES

So You Think You Can Dance

The Biggest Loser

MELROSE PLACE

10:00-11:00

THE FORGOTTEN

THE GOOD WIFE

Local

Jay Leno

Local

I think this could be a huge day for CBS and to a much lesser extent The CW, simply because there are so many people who hate reality shows and when you look at the first two hours of Tuesday night the only networks that don't have reality shows on are CBS and The CW. I'm somewhat concerned with the idea of both NCIS shows being on the same night. Certainly it was something that CBS did with their CSI franchise. Maybe this would have been better on a Sunday. (And by the way, NCIS: Los Angeles? Hardly the most original name!) Melrose Place will probably benefit as well but to a lesser extent because of the nature of the show. As far as the reality shows, I'm afraid I foresee a rather quick demise for Shark Tank even though the series is an international favourite. It just doesn't strike me as a show that Americans will watch during the Fall season. It may also be a mistake to run So You Think You Can Dance in the Fall, particularly so soon after the completion of the summer cycle of the show. In the third hour, this might be one night when Leno is going to be strong. Based on descriptions I can't muster up too much enthusiasm for either The Forgotten or The Good Wife. I'll likely sample both (thanks to a late feed out of Washington state) but don't know which I'd choose.

Wednesday


ABC

CBS

Fox

NBC

The CW

8:00-8:30

HANK

New Adventures of Old Christine

So You Think You Can Dance Results

PARENTHOOD

America's Next Top Model

8:30-9:00

THE MIDDLE

Gary Unmarried

So You Think You Can Dance Results

PARENTHOOD

America's Next Top Model

9:00-9:30

MODERN FAMILY

Criminal Minds

GLEE

Law & Order: SVU

THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE

9:30-10:00

COUGAR TOWN

Criminal Minds

GLEE

Law & Order: SVU

THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE

10:00-11:00

EASTWICK

CSI: NY

Local

Jay Leno

Local

How long has it been since we've seen two sets of sitcoms go up against each other in the same time slot? In the first hour I think the ABC sitcoms have an advantage. It's not just that they've got good casts – although Hank and The Middle do have great leads. The CBS series just seem a bit ... umm pedestrian ... I guess. People who don't like sitcoms do have a couple of reality shows and NBC's Parenthood which I'm sort of looking forward to since they seem to be taking the name rather than the theme from the original movie... and the earlier TV series. Modern Family and Cougar Town also have strong casts, but I don't see them prospering against Criminal Minds and Law & Order: SVU. I do think that Law & Order: SVU is a show that is going to suffer from being in the second hour of prime time where they aren't going to be able to do the edgiest material in the way they did in the third hour. I still haven't watched the pilot for Glee so I'm not really comfortable discussing it. I do think that it is going to face a lot of problems from the two procedurals. Even though I like Paul Gross, who will be starring in Eastwick, and think that Lindsay Price is gorgeous, It just won't beat CSI: New York.

Thursday


ABC

CBS

Fox

NBC

The CW

8:00-8:30

FLASH FORWARD

Survivor

Bones

COMMUNITY

VAMPIRE DIARIES

8:30-9:00

FLASH FORWARD

Survivor

Bones

Parks and Recreation

VAMPIRE DIARIES

9:00-9:30

Grey's Anatomy

CSI

Fringe

The Office

Supernatural

9:30-10:00

Grey's Anatomy

CSI

Fringe

30 Rock

Supernatural

10:00-11:00

Private Practice

The Mentalist

Local

Jay Leno

Local

The night of big payouts in terms of advertising revenue and you can see the networks rolling up the artillery. Leno is going to be a disaster on this night. He won't attract the younger demographic and that has to be essential on a night where movie advertising is important. I think The Mentalist is going to be a good match for CSI and it will be in an interesting battle with Private Practice. I think that The Mentalist will win unless Private Practice pushes the Grey's Anatomy connection. This could be the year when we see a real weakening of CSI. There was a definite weakening in the 2008-09 season after William Petersen left the show – I don't get it myself unless since Laurence Fishburne is an excellent actor, although without Grissom there isn't a strong leader for the team, at least that we can see – and I think that FOX moved Fringe to Thursdays to exploit this. While I like the concept of The CW's Vampire Diaries I'm not convinced that it was appropriate to break up the "guys' night line-up of Smallville and Supernatural. Then again, I don't know how it would work as the anchor on Friday night which is only other good fit for the show. I like the concept for Flash Forward but think it's going to have problems against Survivor and Bones.

Friday


ABC

CBS

Fox

NBC

The CW

8:00-8:30

Supernanny

Ghost Whisperer

BROTHERS

Law & Order

Smallville

8:30-9:00

Supernanny

Ghost Whisperer

'Til Death

Law & Order

Smallville

9:00-10:00

Ugly Betty

MEDIUM

Dollhouse

Southland

America's Next Top Model

10:00-11:00

20/20

Numb3rs

Local

Jay Leno

Local

Tentatively Friday is warming up as a night for scripted programming. Each of the five networks has at least one scripted show on the night. They're a mixed bag. The CBS line-up is pretty much a stand-pat effort; the only change is the addition of Medium but it is an established show even if it was established on a rival network. Ugly Betty is another established show but it's being moved to Friday night in what can best be described as an effort to save the show. I don't think that will work. FOX saved Dollhouse (which is good) but has decided to lead into it with what I tend to regard as a weak new sitcom (Brothers) and a show which should have been cancelled last year when it was pulled off the air ('Til Death). This doesn't look too good for Dollhouse if you ask me. Moving Smallville to Fridays is a bit of a gamble bit it can't do worse than the comedies that The CW had in the time slot. I just which that they had been brave enough to use the show's relative strength (you know, for a show on The CW) to lead into something new rather than an encore of a show that aired previously in the week. Law & Order is entering its 20th season and should do well in the time slot, even though it is early for a crime drama. The real question is how will Southland perform? It wasn't a powerhouse on Thursday nights when it replaced ER so I suspect they're pairing it with Law & Order in the hope that it will retain audience well. I'm not convinced. There are lot of things that I like about the show, but there are a lot of things that could be improved or even scrapped. Both of these series would have been better situated if that third hour of prime time had been available for them.

So there you have it, the 2009 Fall TV line-up. In the next day or two I hope to post preview clips from all of the network shows... although for some of them that won't be easy.

Monday, May 25, 2009

The CW’s 2009 Upfronts

Here's what The CW is planning for the coming season.

Cancelled: 4 Real, Easy Money, In Harms Way, Valentine, Privileged, 13: Fear Is Real, Stylista, The Game, Everybody Hates Chris, Reaper.

Renewed: 90210, America's Next Top Model, Gossip Girl, One Tree Hill, Supernatural.

Moved: Smallville

New Shows: Vampire Diaries, Melrose Place, Beautiful Life

Not Yet Scheduled: Parental Discretion Advised.

Complete Schedule

Monday
8:00-9:00 p.m. Gossip Girl

9:00-10:00 p.m. One Tree Hill

Tuesday
8:00-9:00 p.m. 90210

9:00-10:00 p.m. MELROSE PLACE

Wednesday
8:00-9:00 p.m. America's Next Top Model

9:00-10:00 p.m. THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE

Thursday
8:00-9:00 p.m. VAMPIRE DIARIES
9:00-10:00 p.m. Supernatural

Friday
8:00-9:00 p.m. Smallville
9:00-10:00 p.m. America's Next Top Model Encore

Melrose Place is, like the show preceding it, a remake of the classic Aaron Spelling night-time soap of the 1990s, with at least some people from the original series making a comeback. Well at least temporarily because a character from the original series (who was previously thought to be dead) is murdered in a plot thread that will reportedly carry through the entire season. Stars Laura Leighton and Thomas Calabro from the original series, and Shaun Sipos, Katie Cassidy, Colin Egglesfield, Stephanie Jacobsen, Michael Rady, Jessica Lucas, and Ashlee Simpson-Wentz.

The Beautiful Life is a typical CW show with a young cast and a vaguely soap opera-ish plot line. This time around the subject is the modelling industry. Raina Collins (Sara Paxton) and Chris Andrews (Benjamin Hollingsworth) are two young models just breaking into the industry, Raina at the top and Chris at the bottom. The cast includes Mischa Barton as Raina's friend and sometimes rival Sonja, Elle Macpherson as Claudia Foster who owns the agency that represents Chris. Other cast members include Dusan Dukic, Ashley Madekwe, Jordan Woolley, Corbin Bleu, and Nico Tortorella. Ashton Kutcher, Jason Goldberg, Karey Burke, Mike Kelley, and Carol Barbee are executive producers.

Like Gossip Girl, Vampire Diaries is based on a series of young adult novels. Elena (Nona Dobrev) is a popular high school student who has recently suffered a personal tragedy. In the wake of this she becomes infatuated with Stefan (Paul Wesley), a mysterious new guy at school. Very soon she discovers that Stefan is in fact a vampire. Soon she encounters Damon (Ian Somerhalder) – Stefan's charming but evil older brother. The two brothers find themselves competing for Elena's soul and those of her friends.

In Parental Discretion Advised Britt Robertson plays Lux, a teenager who has spent her entire life bouncing from one foster family to another. Trying to become an "emancipated child" she is forced to track down her biological father "Baze" Bazile (Kristoffer Polaha), a guy in his thirties who owns a bar and has a couple of slacker roommates. He in turn leads her to her mother Cate Cassidy (Shiri Appleby), who hosts the local "Morning Madness" radio show with her off-air boyfriend Ryan (Kerr Smith). Cate is saddened that her daughter has been in the foster system since birth. When Lux's effort to be emancipated fails, the judge grants temporary custody to Baze and Cate who have to overcome their discomfort for the sake of their daughter.

Comments:

Despite the fact that The CW is only programming five nights a week as compared to six nights from the other networks, they will have as many hours of scripted programming in the Fall of 2009 as NBC will, thanks to that network's decision to air The Jay Leno Show each week night. While The CW's eight hours of scripted programs are likely to be far less popular in terms of pure viewership than those on NBC, it is likely that the network will be relatively pleased with the results. The CW is pursuing a different sort of programming model than any of the other four networks. In effect they are narrowcasting, focussing most of their programming at a specific audience – 13-34 year-old women. While it is true that there are a couple of shows that attract an audience outside of that group – Supernatural and Smallville – most of the network's focus is on this particular niche.

Perhaps the most interesting move made by The CW isn't a new show but rather the decision to move an established show; Smallville. Probably the most popular scripted show on the network, The CW reportedly spent a great deal of money to sign Tom Welling for a ninth season. So it would seem strange to move the series from its established timeslot on Thursday – a night that has some of the highest advertising revenues in the week thanks to movie advertising – to the supposed ratings ghetto of Fridays. However there is probably an argument to be made for the move. All of the networks are starting to make a tentative effort to program scripted material on Fridays. I suspect that The CW programmers believe that Smallville has a chance to thrive on Fridays, while at the same time establishing a theme for the network's Thursday night line-up other than "guys' night." The real weakness isn't running Smallville on Fridays but rather following it with an encore of America's Next Top Model rather than a scripted show which would make better use of the show's ratings strength. The problem is finding a show that would mesh with Smallville – the mid-season replacement Parental Discretion Advised really doens't work in that
way.

Themes do seem to be a major feature of The CW's programming. Putting Melrose Place on after 90210 seems to be a bit of simple logic – two Aaron Spelling shows which theoretically at least will not only appeal to the network's core audience but also to those with a nostalgic attachment to the original series. Similarly, the placement of The Beautiful Life, a series about the modelling industry, following the reality series America's Next Top Model is a very logical connection, creating a "fashion industry" block. The one area where this might fall down is with the placement of Vampire Diaries preceding Supernatural. While both series have an "otherworldly" theme (to avoid using the word which is also the title of one of the series), from what little I can discover from a synopsis and a few clips the handling of the theme in Vampire Diaries is hardly similar to the approach being taken on the older series. The other reasoning for placing this show in this time slot is obvious when you realise that the alternative was most likely to place the show on Friday nights without adequate support.

All in all, while no one would mistake The CW's fall line-up with that of CBS or even NBC, I'm inclined to think that it shows at least a bit of an understanding of the market they're trying to reach. There's nothing in the shows that's surprising or stands out glaringly, but the shows that The CW is putting on the air at least betrays an understanding of the audience they're hoping to reach, which is way more than can be said for some (well one) networks.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

CBS’s 2009 Upfronts

(I'm slowly getting through the upfront stuff, a lot slower than I had anticipated and normally do it, but the past few day's I've been dealing with a series of all-day nasty headaches. I'm not nice when I have this sort of headache – I usually .)just want to sleep.

Here's what CBS is planning for the coming season.

Cancelled: The Ex-List, Without a Trace, The Unit, Harper's Island, Eleventh Hour, Worst Week, Game Show In My Head.

Renewed: The Amazing Race, Survivor, Two and a Half Men, Ghost Whisperer, Criminal Minds, CSI, CSI: Miami, CSI: NY, NCIS, Numb3rs, Gary Unmarried, New Adventures of Old Christine.

Moved: The Big Bang Theory, How I Met Your Mother, The Mentalist, Cold Case.

New Shows: Accidentally On Purpose, The Good Wife, NCIS: Los Angeles, Three Rivers, The Medium (picked up from NBC).

Not Yet Scheduled: Rules of Engagement, Flashpoint, Arranged Marriage, The Bridge, Miami Trauma, Undercover Boss.

Complete Schedule

Monday
8:00-8:30 p.m. How I Met Your Mother

8:30-9:00 p.m. ACCIDENTALLY ON PURPOSE
9:00-9:30 p.m. Two and a Half Men
9:30-10:00 p.m. The Big Bang Theory
10:00-11:00 p.m. CSI: Miami

Tuesday
8:00-9:00 p.m. NCIS

9:00-10:00 p.m. NCIS: LOS ANGELES
10:00-11:00 p.m. THE GOOD WIFE

Wednesday
8:00-8:30 p.m. New Adventures of Old Christine

8:30-9:00 p.m. Gary Unmarried
9:00-10:00 p.m. Criminal Minds
10:00-11:00 p.m. CSI: NY

Thursday
8:00-9:00 p.m. Survivor
9:00-10:00 p.m. CSI
10:00-11:00 p.m. The Mentalist

Friday
8:00-9:00 p.m. Ghost Whisperer
9:00-10:00 p.m. MEDIUM
10:00-11:00 p.m. Numb3rs

Sunday
7:00-8:00 p.m. 60 Minutes
8:00-9:00 p.m. The Amazing Race
9:00-10:00 p.m. THREE RIVERS
10:00-11:00 p.m. Cold Case

Accidentally On Purpose is the story of Billie (Jenna Elrman), a newspaper film critic who finds herself pregnant after a one night stand. She decides to keep the baby and the "boy toy" who is the father (Jon Foster). They decide to live together platonically but Billie isn't sure whether she's got a boyfriend, a roommate or a second child to raise, particularly when his freeloading friends come around. Also stars David Show, Ashley Jensen, Lennon Parham and Nicolas Wright.

The Good Wife stars Julianna Margullies as a woman whose life collapses when her politician husband (Chris Noth) is jailed amidst stories of sexual improprieties and political corruption. She returns to her own career as a lawyer at a prestigious Chicago firm, but its been thirteen years since she's been in a courtroom. She finds herself in competition with people half her age for the one associate position with the firm. She does all of this to provide a stable home for her two teen age children. Also stars Christine Baranski, Josh Charles, Matt Czuchry, and Archie Panjabi. Producers are Tony and Ridley Scott.

NCIS: Los Angeles is a spin-off from the original NCIS focussing on NCIS's Office of Special Projects, a branch of NCIS that is involved in undercover surveillance. Stars Chris O'Donell, LL Cool J, and Louise Lombard.

Three Rivers looks at the organ donation process from the perspective of the three groups concerned – the families of the organ donors, the transplant doctors, and the transplant recipients. The only permanent cast members are of course the members of the transplant team at one of the most prestigious transplant hospitals in the country. Cast includes Alex O'Loughlin, Katherine Moennig, Daniel Henney, Julia Ormond, and Christopher J. Hanke.

Arranged Marriage is a reality show that looks at three adults who decide for a variety of reason to allow friends and family to arrange marriages for them. The show follows them from the first meeting with the partners who have been selected for them and through the marriage to the day to day problems of married life.

The Bridge is a Canadian made show from CTV, which also created Flashpoint. Aaron Douglas (from Battlestar Galactica) stars as Frank Leo, the new head of the police union. His work as a cop forces him to bridge the gap between rich and poor in the area they patrol, while his position as union head forces him to bridge the gap between the cops on the streets and the department brass, many of whom have their own political agendas. Also stars Paul Popowich, Frank Cassini, Michael Murphy and Ona Grauer.

Miami Trauma moves Jerry Bruckheimer away from the world of forensics and police procedurals. In Miami Trauma, Bruckheimer goes into the world of emergency medicine with a team of surgeons of varying degrees of experience and different personalities but who excel at the so-called "golden hour" when a trauma patient's life hangs in the balance. Stars Jeremy Northam, Lana Parrilla, Elisabeth Harnois and Omar Gooding.

Undercover Boss is another reality series, and like Shark Tank is
another series taken from a foreign original, this time British. In this series high level corporate executives take low level positions in their own companies to get a real sense of problems that their companies face and how their workers are actually being treated. There's no indication of how long the American executives will stay as low level employees; in the British version of the show they had to spend ten days in their temporary positions.

Comments:

CBS has made several interesting moves in their schedule that I'm not entirely sure of. Moving The Mentalist to Thursday night following CSI from Tuesday following NCIS is both a testament to the show's break-out performance in the past season and a bit of a puzzle in that they're putting a lot of eggs in one basket. My guess is that with Leno taking over the third hour for NBC, CBS is aiming for a show that can deliver a knockout punch against ABC's Private Practice. Bringing Medium over from NBC is another move that some are finding controversial. I've seen Medium described as dying show based on its NBC ratings, and when CBS described NBC's failure to pick up the show as "indefensible" because it had higher ratings than some NBC shows that were renewed (including Chuck which was – rightly – the subject to so much effort to get it brought back) NBC countered by saying that the series was lower rated than some of the shows that CBS cancelled. One of those shows was Eleventh Hour which was a show that I loved but one where the cancellation wasn't a surprise, just frustrating. I have a suspicion that when the ratings for the full year come out Eleventh Hour – which frequently finished 13th in overall viewers – will probably be the highest rated show cancelled this season (yes, above Without A Trace). And yet anyone who reads Marc Berman's Programming Insider forums knows that the "numbers heads" (as I call them) there were demanding that the show be cancelled practically from the time it debuted because it didn't do well in the 18-49 demographic – though it was improving – and had poor retention out of CSI. I'll mourn Eleventh Hour but I do see the merits of putting Medium on the network and putting it on Friday night when the 18-49 demographic is arguably less important than it is on other nights.

Looking at the new shows I think there isn't much that really stand out. I'm not entirely sure that moving Big Bang Theory out of the first half hour of prime time and moving How I Met Your Mother will necessarily help Accidentally On Purpose. This show is going to rise and fall on how much people like and accept Jenna Elfman in this role, because the show doesn't seem overly original. The description of the show reminds me a lot of the Katherine Heigl-Seth Rogen movie Knocked Up and the clip that I've seen doesn't disabuse me of that notion.

Turning to the dramas, my one concern with NCIS: Los Angeles is that they've decided to use it to follow the original NCIS. The problem is of course that looking at the CBS schedule I can't think of anywhere else to put the show except maybe following The Amazing Race. Does it really fit to have a show that is going to deal with global terrorism follow a show that deals with global travel? Three Rivers, with its dramatic emphasis on saving lives probably works better. Finally there is The Good Wife. I'm pretty much convinced that if NBC had continued to program the third hour of prime time rather than turn it over to Jay Leno, CBS would have retained Without A Trace. As it stands the new Julianna Margulies series will be facing up against a relatively routine procedural (The Forgotten).

CBS looks set to be the dominant network – at least in terms of total audience numbers if not in the 18-49 demographic (let alone the 18-34 demographic which is becoming more important for some advertisers) – this year. The network has admirable "bench-strength" and could arguably have retained all of their 2008-09 line-up, replacing only The Ex-List and Worst Week. That said, there's nothing particularly bad about the new line-up either. The problem is that while there's nothing particularly bad about it I really can't say that there's anything particularly outstanding about it either. It's a nice safe, unchallenging line-up. It's going to work, and I'm betting that few of these shows are going to be cancelled before the end of the season. I just don't think that it's a line-up that will set the world on fire either.