The 2009-10 Season Night By Night

This post looks at the coming Fall season on a day by day basis. The aim is to try to handicap the season and pick the winners and losers. Needless to say this is an inexact "art" – because calling it a science is absurd. Several "rules" apply in looking at this stuff. For one thing, no show from The CW will win a time slot for a season. I won't say never ever – after all they used to say that about FOX back when they were airing shows like Werewolf and look where they are now. They just aren't going to do it this year or for a long long time. The other major "truth" is that in a battle between an established show and a new show, the established show has an advantage, particularly after the show has had a second season. The more established the show the greater the likelihood that it will knock out a new series. Of course the term "established" is a relative term, and it is possible – likely even – that there is a tipping point where an older show loses audience because people are becoming tired of it. Not unlike the old er bull elephant that used to run the herd but gets bounced by a younger stronger bull. Still TV is like a lot of elections, where the incumbent has an advantage over the fresh face.

Before looking at things on a night by night basis, it's only appropriate to recognise the "gorilla in the room" which this year is NBC's decision to effectively abandon the third hour of primetime by scheduling The Jay Leno Show five nights a week. NBC apparently thinks that while the Leno show won't win every night of the week but they say it will win some nights and be competitive on others. I say they're delusional. I mean I understand what they're doing; they wanted to keep Leno on NBC on the grounds that its better to find something for him to do with the network than having him bitter and on another network attacking the show that he had been forced out of. The thing is though that in their ham-fisted way they've screwed the proverbial pooch. There were other ways that NBC could have reacted to the possibility of losing Leno. When Steve Allen left the Tonight Show in 1956 the network kept him with the once a week Steve Allen Show. I wouldn't be surprised if NBC would have been able to keep Leno with a similar arrangement. But of course NBC – in the person of Jeff Zucker, who has spoken on this – is convinced that putting scripted programming on during the third hour of primetime is part of a broken programming model. Doing five hours a week of Leno is cheaper than five hours of scripted programming and Zucker has stated that advertisers will respect the network based not on ratings but on corporate profitability. But an advertiser is "buying eyeballs" – and more importantly the "right" eyeballs – and Leno is not going to deliver in that area. He is unlikely to win his time slot on most nights and possibly not any nights, but more importantly Leno is most likely going to finish third every night in the 18-49 demographic which everyone acknowledges is a key factor for advertisers. So NBC has committed itself to a model that is probably more broken than the one they are rejecting. Worse, it's a position that they can't gracefully retreat from if the ratings are as bad as a lot of people think they are going to be.

Times are Eastern, and new shows are in capitals (except NCIS and CSI).

Sunday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
7:00-7:30	America's Funniest Home Videos	60 Minutes	The O/T	Football Night In America	Local
7:30-8:00	America's Funniest Home Videos	60 Minutes	The O/T	Football Night In America	Local
8:00-8:30	Extreme Makeover Home Edition	The Amazing Race	The Simpsons	Football Night In America	Local
8:30-9:00	Extreme Makeover Home Edition	The Amazing Race	THE CLEVELAND SHOW	Sunday Night Football	Local
9:00-9:30	Desperate Housewives	THREE RIVERS	Family Guy	Sunday Night Football	Local
9:30-10:00	Desperate Housewives	THREE RIVERS	American Dad	Sunday Night Football	Local
10:00-11:00	Brothers & Sisters	Cold Case	Local	Sunday Night Football	Local

There are a couple of changes here of which the least is probably The CW's decision to turn the night back to the affiliates for first run syndication. The network has been floundering on Sunday nights since UPN and The WB merged and last year's debacle with the Media Rights Capital shows pretty much proved that the network can't find a successful formula for the night. The major changes are the two new shows – The Cleveland Show and Three Rivers – and the decision to move Cold Case to the third hour. The Cleveland Show seems to be a good fit between The Simpsons and Family Guy but how things will shake out later in the year when the show is supposed to move to the slot currently occupied by American Dad is anyone's guess. The big battle is going to be between Three Rivers and the established Desperate Housewives. NBC's Sunday Night Football siphons off a big chunk of the male audience which leads to the belief that the two scripted shows will be fighting over the female audience. In this Desperate Housewives might be presumed to have an advantage. However the relative success of Cold Case in the time slot would suggest that the audience for an alternative to football and Seth MacFarlane animation isn't as homogeneous as one might think. Couple that with somewhat flagging ratings for Desperate Housewives over the past season, the presence of Moonlight heart-throb Alex O'Laughlin in Three Rivers, and there would seem to be some play how well the newcomer will do in the time slot. I still think that Desperate Housewives will come second in the time slot – effectively a win amongst the shows that aren't Football – I wouldn't be surprised to see the show continue to weaken and Three Rivers pick up viewers. Whether Cold Case can survive the move to the third hour is a different question. In recent years ratings for CBS shows on Sunday nights have weakened as the night progressed. Cold Case is an established show but the question is whether it will carry its audience to the later time slot.

Monday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	Dancing with the Stars	How I Met Your Mother	House	Heroes	Gossip Girl
8:30-9:00	Dancing with the Stars	ACCIDENTALLY ON PURPOSE	House	Heroes	Gossip Girl
9:00-9:30	Dancing with the Stars	Two and a Half Men	Lie To Me	TRAUMA	One Tree Hill
9:30-10:00	Dancing with the Stars	The Big Bang Theory	Lie To Me	TRAUMA	One Tree Hill
10:00-11:00	Castle	CSI: Miami	Local	Jay Leno	Local

This is the first night when the "Leno Effect" will be felt. I don't see too much hope for the 13 week NBC series Trauma up against Dancing With The Stars, the highest rated CBS comedies (Two and a Half Men and The Big Bang Theory) and even Lie To Me (though I worry about how well that show will do against the power house shows in that hour). I don't think CSI: Miami will have much trouble winning its time slot against Castle, but the latter shouldn't totally collapse and it should be strong enough to beat Leno. The one weak spot for CBS might be the new comedy Accidentally On Purpose. What I've seen of it doesn't really do anything for me.

Tuesday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	SHARK TANK	NCIS	So You Think You Can Dance	The Biggest Loser	90210
8:30-9:00	SHARK TANK	NCIS	So You Think You Can Dance	The Biggest Loser	90210
9:00-9:30	Dancing with the Stars Results	NCIS: LOS ANGELES	So You Think You Can Dance	The Biggest Loser	MELROSE PLACE
9:30-10:00	Dancing with the Stars Results	NCIS: LOS ANGELES	So You Think You Can Dance	The Biggest Loser	MELROSE PLACE
10:00-11:00	THE FORGOTTEN	THE GOOD WIFE	Local	Jay Leno	Local

I think this could be a huge day for CBS and to a much lesser extent The CW, simply because there are so many people who hate reality shows and when you look at the first two hours of Tuesday night the only networks that don't have reality shows on are CBS and The CW. I'm somewhat concerned with the idea of both NCIS shows being on the same night. Certainly it was something that CBS did with their CSI franchise. Maybe this would have been better on a Sunday. (And by the way, NCIS: Los Angeles? Hardly the most original name!) Melrose Place will probably benefit as well but to a lesser extent because of the nature of the show. As far as the reality shows, I'm afraid I foresee a rather quick demise for Shark Tank even though the series is an international favourite. It just doesn't strike me as a show that Americans will watch during the Fall season. It may also be a mistake to run So You Think You Can Dance in the Fall, particularly so soon after the completion of the summer cycle of the show. In the third hour, this might be one night when Leno is going to be strong. Based on descriptions I can't muster up too much enthusiasm for either The Forgotten or The Good Wife. I'll likely sample both (thanks to a late feed out of Washington state) but don't know which I'd choose.

Wednesday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	HANK	New Adventures of Old Christine	So You Think You Can Dance Results	PARENTHOOD	America's Next Top Model
8:30-9:00	THE MIDDLE	Gary Unmarried	So You Think You Can Dance Results	PARENTHOOD	America's Next Top Model
9:00-9:30	MODERN FAMILY	Criminal Minds	GLEE	Law & Order: SVU	THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE
9:30-10:00	COUGAR TOWN	Criminal Minds	GLEE	Law & Order: SVU	THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE
10:00-11:00	EASTWICK	CSI: NY	Local	Jay Leno	Local

How long has it been since we've seen two sets of sitcoms go up against each other in the same time slot? In the first hour I think the ABC sitcoms have an advantage. It's not just that they've got good casts – although Hank and The Middle do have great leads. The CBS series just seem a bit ... umm pedestrian ... I guess. People who don't like sitcoms do have a couple of reality shows and NBC's Parenthood which I'm sort of looking forward to since they seem to be taking the name rather than the theme from the original movie... and the earlier TV series. Modern Family and Cougar Town also have strong casts, but I don't see them prospering against Criminal Minds and Law & Order: SVU. I do think that Law & Order: SVU is a show that is going to suffer from being in the second hour of prime time where they aren't going to be able to do the edgiest material in the way they did in the third hour. I still haven't watched the pilot for Glee so I'm not really comfortable discussing it. I do think that it is going to face a lot of problems from the two procedurals. Even though I like Paul Gross, who will be starring in Eastwick, and think that Lindsay Price is gorgeous, It just won't beat CSI: New York.

Thursday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	FLASH FORWARD	Survivor	Bones	COMMUNITY	VAMPIRE DIARIES
8:30-9:00	FLASH FORWARD	Survivor	Bones	Parks and Recreation	VAMPIRE DIARIES
9:00-9:30	Grey's Anatomy	CSI	Fringe	The Office	Supernatural
9:30-10:00	Grey's Anatomy	CSI	Fringe	30 Rock	Supernatural
10:00-11:00	Private Practice	The Mentalist	Local	Jay Leno	Local

The night of big payouts in terms of advertising revenue and you can see the networks rolling up the artillery. Leno is going to be a disaster on this night. He won't attract the younger demographic and that has to be essential on a night where movie advertising is important. I think The Mentalist is going to be a good match for CSI and it will be in an interesting battle with Private Practice. I think that The Mentalist will win unless Private Practice pushes the Grey's Anatomy connection. This could be the year when we see a real weakening of CSI. There was a definite weakening in the 2008-09 season after William Petersen left the show – I don't get it myself unless since Laurence Fishburne is an excellent actor, although without Grissom there isn't a strong leader for the team, at least that we can see – and I think that FOX moved Fringe to Thursdays to exploit this. While I like the concept of The CW's Vampire Diaries I'm not convinced that it was appropriate to break up the "guys' night line-up of Smallville and Supernatural. Then again, I don't know how it would work as the anchor on Friday night which is only other good fit for the show. I like the concept for Flash Forward but think it's going to have problems against Survivor and Bones.

Friday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	Supernanny	Ghost Whisperer	BROTHERS	Law & Order	Smallville
8:30-9:00	Supernanny	Ghost Whisperer	'Til Death	Law & Order	Smallville
9:00-10:00	Ugly Betty	MEDIUM	Dollhouse	Southland	America's Next Top Model
10:00-11:00	20/20	Numb3rs	Local	Jay Leno	Local

Tentatively Friday is warming up as a night for scripted programming. Each of the five networks has at least one scripted show on the night. They're a mixed bag. The CBS line-up is pretty much a stand-pat effort; the only change is the addition of Medium but it is an established show even if it was established on a rival network. Ugly Betty is another established show but it's being moved to Friday night in what can best be described as an effort to save the show. I don't think that will work. FOX saved Dollhouse (which is good) but has decided to lead into it with what I tend to regard as a weak new sitcom (Brothers) and a show which should have been cancelled last year when it was pulled off the air ('Til Death). This doesn't look too good for Dollhouse if you ask me. Moving Smallville to Fridays is a bit of a gamble bit it can't do worse than the comedies that The CW had in the time slot. I just which that they had been brave enough to use the show's relative strength (you know, for a show on The CW) to lead into something new rather than an encore of a show that aired previously in the week. Law & Order is entering its 20^th season and should do well in the time slot, even though it is early for a crime drama. The real question is how will Southland perform? It wasn't a powerhouse on Thursday nights when it replaced ER so I suspect they're pairing it with Law & Order in the hope that it will retain audience well. I'm not convinced. There are lot of things that I like about the show, but there are a lot of things that could be improved or even scrapped. Both of these series would have been better situated if that third hour of prime time had been available for them.

So there you have it, the 2009 Fall TV line-up. In the next day or two I hope to post preview clips from all of the network shows... although for some of them that won't be easy.