The 2012-13 Season–Night By Night

Again this year it’s time to look at the how the networks schedules stack up directly against each other. I’m going to try to handicap each network’s chances and try to pick the winners and losers without actually seeing anything more than a few of the commercials that the networks have been running since they made their announcements. As I’ve said before, prediction or prophecy isn’t an exact at the best of times, and as I get older I fear that my ability to predict what the networks will keep – being based on the 18-49 demographic – is going to less and less accurate.

I think I did rather well by way of predictions in my article last year. Maybe because I kept a lot of the predictions fairly cryptic, and sometime simply didn’t mention a show. Two of the big successes of the past season weren’t mentioned by me at all: Once Upon A Time and Revenge. On the other hand my suggestion that there might be a glut of “singing reality-competition shows” – there were four last season – turned out to be a pretty good one. The X-Factor didn’t turn out to be as big a success as FOX and various TV pundits suggested, American Idol ratings have slipped, and The Sing-Off has had its last song sung. Only The Voice was a huge success. I also stated that “a sufficiently large audience for a scripted show other than one of the CBS shows might persuade the networks to stay in the business of doing original scripted shows on Fridays.” Grimm did produce a “sufficiently large audience” to be renewed, and every network (with the exception of The CW which had two scripted series on the night for many years and has now moved America’s Next Top Model to the night) has at least two hours of scripted programs on Friday night, at least at the start of the season. On the other hand I did get Charlie’s Angels wrong, and my only excuse was that I hadn’t seen a trailer for that at that point.

Last year I also had my Battle of the Night and Show To Keep An Eye On statements – they were never really predictions and I didn’t say if the reasons for keeping an eye on a show were because the shows were bad or good. Just to review here are my Battles of the Night for last year and how things turned out with them.

Monday: “8:00-10:00 p.m. Dancing With The Stars vs. The Sing-Off”
Dancing With The Stars is still around while The Sing-Off was cancelled. On the other hand the current cycle of DWTS has had problems against The Voice. Don’t know why, but then I hate (singing) “talent shows.”

Tuesday: “10:00-11:00 p.m. Unforgettable vs Body Of Proof vs Parenthood”
A very interesting one. The show which had the best ratings of the three – Unforgettable – was cancelled while both Body Of Proof and Parenthood have been renewed. Then again Body Of Proof was moved off the night and replaced by Private Practice so of the three original competitors in the time slot the winner is…Parenthood?!?!?!?

Wednesday: “10:00-11:00 p.m. CSI vs Law & Order: SVU”
Law & Order SVU had the lowest ratings of all three shows in the time-slot while CSI had the highest, plus SVU will be on an hour earlier this coming season. Clear win to a revitalised CSI with an assist from Revenge (which has also moved but because it was popular).

Thursday: “10:00-11:00 p.m. Prime Suspect vs Private Practice”
Prime Suspect died a quick death. KO win to Private Practice. The fact that after their failures in this time-slot last season NBC decided to air a newsmagazine – Rock Center with Brian Williams – this season says a whole lot.

Friday: “I’m not really sure. Maybe 8-10 with all the scripted shows going up against the three reality series.”
Clear victory to the scripted shows. Extreme Makeover Home Edition is gone, Kitchen Nightmares is being held until mid-season, Only Shark Tank remains. Meanwhile A Gifted Man may have died on CBS but every network will start the season either with at least one scripted show in that two hour block or some that will be coming on in November.

Sunday: “9:00-10:00 p.m. The Good Wife vs Desperate Housewives
Good Wife is still in the time-slot Desperate Housewives is done, although admittedly it’s departure was largely pre-planned. Moreover The Good Wife won Julianna Margulies an Emmy, the second acting award for the show in as many years. Win to The Good Wife.

So let’s see what I can come up with this year. All times Eastern; new show in capitals (except CSI and NCIS)

Monday

	ABC	CBS	FOX	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	Dancing With The Stars	How I Met Your Mother	Bones	The Voice	90210
8:30-9:00	Dancing With The Stars	PARTNERS	Bones	The Voice	90210
9:00-9:30	Dancing With The Stars	2 Broke Girls	THE MOB DOCTOR	The Voice	Gossip Girl
9:30-10:00	Dancing With The Stars	Mike & Molly	THE MOB DOCTOR	The Voice	Gossip Girl
10:00-11:00	Castle	Hawaii Five-0	Local	REVOLUTION	Local

Battle of the night:
8:00-10:00 p.m.: Dancing With The Stars vs. The Voice

Show to keep an eye on: Mob Doctor

To explain my choice for “Battle of the Night” I need to point out that while Dancing With The Stars prospered against NBC’s The Sing Off in the first half of the season the show’s ratings fell when it was opposite The Voice for their second cycle of the 2011-12 season. The only real changes between the two was the addition of Alcatraz on FOX, which moved House an hour earlier, and the replacement of The Sing Off with The Voice. Oh yeah, and a much better group of dancers on DWTS. So the question, at least for the first half of the season is whether the trend will continue with ratings for Dancing With The Stars going down while The Voice is stable or goes up, or whether the public is tired of the glut of “singing” shows in which case ratings for The Voice will go down. Also, will the decision to go for an “all-star” version of DWTS help or hurt the franchise.

I named Mob Doctor as the show to keep an eye on because, of the three new shows at the start of the season it’s the one whose fate I’m least sure of. Partners will slip into the 7:30-8:00 slot without any problem. It’s perfect in tone for the time-slot and the shows on either side of it. On the opposite side, Revolution is a “dead show walking” and would be even if it weren’t going up against Castle and Hawaii Five-0. The concept is just too far out there. Even the worst haters are going to have to admit that Studio 60 On The Sunset Strip was better than this crap and would get better ratings. Which leaves us with The Mob Doctor as a show that I just can’t figure. Oh, I’m sure it’s going to be cancelled next May (assuming there is a next May; the Mayan calendar might be prophetic after all) but I just don’t know if the ratings will be so bad that FOX will pull it before the planned run ends. Interesting conundrum.

Tuesday

	ABC	CBS	FOX	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	Dancing With The Stars	NCIS	Raising Hope	The Voice	Hart Of Dixie
8:30-9:00	Dancing With The Stars	NCIS	BEN AND KATE	The Voice	Hart Of Dixie
9:00-9:30	Happy Endings	NCIS: Los Angeles	The New Girl	GO ON	EMILY OWENS M.D.
9:30-10:00	Don’t Trust The B---- In Apartment 23	NCIS: Los Angeles	THE MINDY PROJECT	THE NEW NORMAL	EMILY OWENS M.D.
10:00-11:00	Private Practice	VEGAS	Local	Parenthood	Local

Battle Of The night:
9:00-10:00 p.m.:
Happy Endings and Don’t Trust The B---- In Apartment 23 vs. The New Girl and The Mindy Project vs. Go On and The New Normal

Show to keep an eye on: Vegas

This is the first night where we see the battle between network sitcom blocks, and the 9:00-10:00 period is the first one where we see six sitcoms going head to head, three of them new shows. Now of course they’re all going to get their cookies crushed by bully on the block NCIS: Los Angeles but that really doesn’t matter because this is mostly a battle for second place.The landscape has changed for ABC because the Dancing With The Stars results show has been moved an hour earlier, so Happy Endings, which is probably the weaker of the ABC comedies, gets any supposed ratings boost out of that. It also inherits higher expectations of what it should be getting in terms of retention of the previous hour’s audience. The new Matthew Perry comedy Go On probably faces similar expectations out of The Voice results show but the pairing with The New Normal actually looks like the best combo that NBC is putting out there, maybe for the whole week. The question is whether people are going to watch another sitcom with Matthew Perry, since his last effort (on ABC) did so well. I also think that the FOX pairing of The New Girl and The Mindy Project is a good one. I’d say it’s better than the weak lead-in of Raising Hope and Ben And Kate. There’s plenty of evidence that Raising Hope, which had a weak sophomore season after a good (but not really great) debut season isn’t strong enough to anchor the night. Then again, last season it had the flagging Glee in the first hour…except when it didn’t. All things considered though – well all things except actually seeing some clips from the show that is – Ben and Kate seems to be the weakest of the new comedies on Tuesday, and that could have an impact on the ratings – and the expectations – for The New Girl and The Mindy Project. Oh, also on in that timeslot is The CW’s Emily Owens M.D. but barring major viewership shifts (which the Mayan calendar does not predict) this “all life is like high school” show isn’t going to be a significant player in the fight.

My show to keep an eye on though is Vegas. It makes sense that when CBS jumps onto the period drama bandwagon they would do it in a form that they’re most familiar with, a cop show. The cast looks very strong, with Dennis Quaid going head to head with Michael Chiklis. CBS is taking a big risk here; they dropped Unforgettable which was winning the time slot by a good margin even against veteran Private Practice, reportedly not because Unforgettable was doing badly but because the new shows, including Vegas, were that good. So Vegas has to prove itself by holding onto a big chunk of the NCIS: Los Angeles lead-in. It’s not just that they have to beat Private Practice and Parenthood, they have to beat them badly.

Wednesday

	ABC	CBS	FOX	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	The Middle	Survivor	The X-Factor	ANIMAL PRACTICE	ARROW
8:30-9:00	Suburgatory	Survivor	The X-Factor	GUYS WITH KIDS	ARROW
9:00-9:30	Modern Family	Criminal Minds	The X-Factor	Law & Order: SVU	Supernatural
9:30-10:00	THE NEIGHBORS	Criminal Minds	The X-Factor	Law & Order: SVU	Supernatural
10:00-11:00	NASHVILE	CSI	Local	CHICAGO FIRE	Local

Battle of the night:
10:00-11:00 p.m.: Nashville vs. Chicago Fire

Show to keep an eye on: Chicago Fire

Two things you need to know. I came oh so close to making Arrow the “show to keep an eye on” because it may be the first CW show in a while to finish ahead of a major network show in quite some time; I think Smallville did it once a few years ago. That’s not a case of having a lot of faith in how good Arrow is going to be it is a case of having a very low opinion of Animal Practice and Guys With Kids. Of course this is being done without the benefit of seeing any clips; the two shows could have the qualities of comedies by Preston Sturges, Billy Wilder and Buster Keaton combined…but I doubt it. But they’re not the worst sounding comedies on this night. That dubious honour goes to The Neighbors from ABC, the description of which sounds like the legendary failure Cavemen. This leaves us with the 10:00-11:00 timeslot. If we can accept that CSI will win the hour – and there’s no reason to think they can on the basis of the season past – then the real battle is between Nashville and Chicago Fire. I think I have the potential to like both shows. Nashville promises to have something of a soap opera quality, and I like series star Connie Britton from her time on Friday Night Lights. On the other hand Chicago Fire might well be the best new show that NBC has this fall. I realise that that isn’t saying much – NBC only has two new dramas as well as a raft of sitcoms. If I were to give an edge to one of the two series I would lean towards Chicago Fire.

And that’s the frustrating part for me. I think the show is on the wrong night; it should be on Thursday night. Thursday night generates the highest ratings in terms of audience size and the demographic (as I understand it) of any night of the week. It also generates some of the highest revenue for the networks because it is the night that the major movie studios spend the most to promote the movies that open the next day. Logic would seem to suggest that the network put its top show in the third hour of Thursday night. And yet NBC is airing the low rated newsmagazine Rock Center With Brian Williams in the timeslot. Chicago Fire would be the perfect show for the Thursday night slot, particularly against CBS’s Elementary and ABC’s Scandal, the former a new show and the latter a show that did did adequately but not spectacularly in the short run this spring. That’s why I think that Chicago Fire is a show to keep your eye on – it might (and should) move to Thursday when we’re not looking.

Thursday

	ABC	CBS	FOX	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	LAST RESORT	The Big Bang Theory	The X-Factor	30 Rock	Vampire Diaries
8:30-9:00	LAST RESORT	Two And A  Half Men	The X-Factor	Up All Night	Vampire Diaries
9:00-9:30	Grey’s Anatomy	Person Of Interest	Glee	The Office	BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
9:30-10:00	Grey’s Anatomy	Person Of Interest	Glee	Parks & Recreation	BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
10:00-11:00	Scandal	ELEMENTARY	Local	Rock Center With Brian Williams	Local

Battle Of The night
9:00-10:00: Glee vs. Person Of Interest and Grey’s Anatomy and The Office/Parks & Recreation, and maybe even Beauty And The Beast

Show to keep an eye on: Elementary

Tough one to figure. In fact I wasn’t even sure I could decide on a battle of the night because every hour on Thursday has something interesting going on. In the first hour you’ve got The X-Factor results show and while the show wasn’t the blockbuster that people were expecting it still did well in the ratings. But CBS is moving up its own heavy artillery in the form of The Big Bang Theory and Two And A Half Men. That could be a real battle because CBS is trying so hard for the win. The new show in that timeslot, The Last Resort may seem intriguing (it does to me) but I don’t think it will work. It certainly won’t be the next Lost which is what I think some people at ABC are probably praying for.

In the third hour, with NBC abdicating by putting Rock Center With Brian Williams in the timeslot we have a head-to-head, mano a mano (in the truest Spanish sense of the phrase) battle between relative newcomer Scandal and newcomer Elementary. The latter is worrying to me because while superficially the show seems to be the sort of thing that CBS does – a procedural with a quirky protagonist and a competent associate – tying it to the Sherlock Holmes characters is a bit “cutesy,” not to mention derivative of the show that is currently running on the BBC. (Actually, in writing this I’m reminded of how similar this could be to The Mentalist in tone). And that may explain why Elementary is the show I think you should keep an eye on, if only just to see if if CBS can draw an audience with the show.

But the battle of the night still has to be Glee against everything else in he timeslot. The shows on CBS, NBC and ABC are all established commodities on the night. Grey’s Anatomy is sliding a bit in the ratings (and the just killed off Lexie, my favourite character on the show; Damn you Shonda Rhimes!!!) but it’s still powerful. Last year’s newcomer in the slot, Person Of Interest started slow but grew into a bona fide hit. The Office and Parks & Recreation both have a vocal fan base, although neither is as strong in terms of ratings as they are in critical appeal. Against them is Glee. FOX is not eager to publicize the fact that Glee bears a strong resemblance to Heroes in that it started as one of the hottest things around, a critical and ratings darling, but very quickly began to lose steam in the ratings and has been losing critical support as well. I would suggest that they’re pairing it up with X-Factor in part because they expect that the two will flow together with people who watch the singers on the reality show hanging on to watch the singers on the scripted show. But I also think they’re hoping for a ratings boost for Glee as the show sees some of the original cast that fans grew to love moving on and the show at least partially moving away from the high school setting. If it works there’s going to be a real dog fight in this time slot and I don’t know who’ll win. If it doesn’t work, well Glee will be seen as one of those shows that has a brief shining moment and then falls to earth.

Friday (as of November)

	ABC	CBS	FOX	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	Last Man Standing	CSI: New York	Touch	Whitney	America’s Next Top Model
8:30-9:00	MALIBU COUNTRY	CSI: New York	Touch	Community	America’s Next Top Model
9:00-10:00	Shark Tank	MADE IN NEW JERSEY	Fringe	Grimm	Nikita
10:00-11:00	Primetime: What Would You Do?	Blue Bloods	Local	Dateline NBC	Local

Battle of the night
8:00-9:00: Last Man Standing and Malibu Country vs. Whitney and Community

Show to keep an eye on: Malibu Country

The battle of the night is an interesting one. It isn’t just ABC’s new comedy block versus NBC’s third comedy block, it can be perceived as “populist” shows versus “elitist” shows. Both Whitney and Community produced poor ratings both last season and, in the case of Community, since it’s been on the air. However Community at least has been a critical darling with a dedicated audience – and an audience that presumably NBC values enough to give it at least 13 episodes this season. On the other hand no critic regards Last Man Standing as an act of genius. That it was the only survivor of ABC’s Tuesday comedy block last year is entirely due to the star power of Tim Allen. Lest we forget after all, his previous series Home Improvement wasn’t a critical darling either; the public loved it though. Malibu Country has the same quality going for it. Reba McIntyre has a real talent for comedy, and showed it in her old WB/CW series Reba. The critics routinely complained about it, and the executives at The CW apparently agreed because the first thing they did when The WB and UPN merged to become The CW was to cancel Reba. When,  after protests, they grudgingly gave it a 13 episode renewal it averaged 3.6 million in it’s abbreviated final season, making it one of the top shows on the network. The only people who liked it were the viewers.

Malibu Country gets to be my “show to keep an eye on” because I think the ratings it is going to get are going to surprise a lot of people, particularly the people who say that “Friday is the new Saturday” and talk about the “Friday Night Death Slot.” It’s not going to be huge with the 18-49 demographic, and certainly not huge with the 18-34 age group that seems to be the subset that people who are obsessed with such things focus on now, but I believe that it is going to grab an audience on either side of the demographic and I’m convinced that this is the approach that they networks are going to have to take for Fridays. So why this show rather than Made In New Jersey? Well, because Made In New Jersey is a typical CBS Friday show, not unlike previous occupants of the evening, like Ghost Whisperer and Close To Home. It’s not necessarily a bad show in concept but it’s just not the sort of thing that is likely to be as significant as Malibu Country. Made In New Jersey is a basic fish out of water story in which the “fish” succeeds because she’s an outsider. It could be a very good show but it is also a “safe” show and the success that it will have – and I’m betting that it wins its timeslot but will probably not retain all of the CSI: New York lead-in – will be a relatively safe success. It won’t tell anyone anything, and I think that Malibu Country, if it succeeds, will tell anyone who is paying attention a lot.

Sunday

	ABC	CBS	FOX	NBC	The CW
7:00-7:30	America’s Funniest Videos	60 Minutes	The OT	Football Night In America	Local
7:30-8:00	America’s Funniest Videos	60 Minutes	The Cleveland Show	Football Night In America	Local
8:00-8:30	Once Upon A Time	The Amazing Race	The Simpsons	Football Night In America(8:15)	Local
8:30-9:00	Once Upon A Time	The Amazing Race	Bob’s Burgers	(8:15) Sunday Night Football	Local
9:00-9:30	Revenge	The Good  Wife	The Family Guy	Sunday Night Football	Local
9:30-10:00	Revenge	The Good  Wife	American Dad	Sunday Night Football	Local
10:00-11:00	666 PARK AVENUE	The Mentalist	Local	Sunday Night Football	Local

Battle Of The Night
9:00-10:00: The Good Wife vs. Revenge

Show to keep an eye on: 666 Park Avenue

Maybe the most stable night on TV this season though that’s going to change once the Football season ends. 666 Park Avenue is the default “show to keep an eye on” because it’s the only new show on the night. I don’t think it’s going to work; American audiences have historically not been particularly interested in this sort of gothic drama, and a good cast – Terry O’Quinn and Vanessa Willams – probably won’t make that much of a difference.

The Revenge vs. The Good Wife battle is also a default choice. I think that ABC’s plans collapsed in flames when GCB failed, because I suspect that they planned on moving GCB to the Desperate Housewives slot. Revenge might work there although it isn’t nearly as light as Desperate Housewives was. The Good Wife has never been a big hit although it has collected a couple of Emmys for two of the actresses (Archie Panjabi and Julianna Margulies), and is probably regarded as a “prestige” show for CBS because of the Emmy wins. One thing that may hurt The Good Wife is something that tends to plague CBS shows on Sundays; delayed starts because the Football game (or the golf match) ran late. I really can’t get excited for this battle. I think that unless Revenge collapses badly, or unless it totally crushes The Good Wife – two outcomes that I think are totally unrealistic – both shows are going to be back, and neither one is going to breakout spectacularly. In other words the result at the end of the year is going to be status quo ante – the same as it was before.

Wow. That took a lot longer than I expected. Maybe if I hadn’t had a clogged drain – which still isn’t open and needs a plumber, and this is a long weekend in Canada – turn into multiple plumbing problems, I might have gotten this done earlier.