One Word Describing NBC’s Schedule - Screwed

I could offer other words – stinks, sucks, blows, awful, horrendous, the f-word, the s-word – but screwed fits as well as any. Based on the ratings from the first two and a half months of the 2008 season, not to mention the quality of the new NBC shows the NBC schedule is circling the bowl and heading round the twist as the Brits would say. And yet, as with a really good short story there's a twist at the end that makes you shake your head.

The genesis for this post is the announcements over the last week that came out of NBC. First there was the cancellation of My Own Worst Enemy and Lipstick Jungle. Unlike previous seasons, the two shows will air the remaining episodes that have been shot in their current time slots. This was followed by the announcement that Knight Rider, which had previously been given a full season order, would be "retooled" by dropping a number of characters to make the current version of the show more like the original. Ain't It Cool News even suggests the possibility that David "The Hoff" Hasselhoff will become a regular – if the show is renewed for a second season. We've also seen second season series Life moved
from the third hour of Friday to the second hour of Wednesday, and the original Law & Order (which apparently had been intended as a Sunday show after Football ends) replacing Lipstick Jungle in the third hour of Wednesday. America's Toughest Jobs, a reality series that followed ordinary people who didn't do manual labour doing the sort of work that gets made into TV series – crab fishing, logging, ice road trucking being just three examples – ended unmourned (and unwatched) on Saturday nights. Crusoe was apparently planned as a 13 episode series from the beginning – a mini-series in all but name. Of the new series introduced in Ben Silverman's first line-up, this leaves only Kath & Kim uncancelled, unmodified, and in the same time slot that it started in.

I suppose that this is where we should look at the "tale of the tape," the statistical measure behind the NBC line-up. Let's start with the new shows that Silverman introduced. The ratings shown are for the most recently aired episodes of the shows (provided by Marc Berman of Media Week):

	Total Viewers	18-49 Demo	Position	Top Show in Time Period	Total Viewers	18-49 Demo
My Own Worst Enemy	4.25 million	1.8/5	3rd	CSI: Miami	13.67 million	3.7/10
Knight Rider	5.34 million	1.5/4 (5th)	4th	CMA Awards (special)	15.03 million	4.2/12
Kath & Kim	5.08 million	2.1/6	3rd	CSI	18.93 million	5.1/12 (2nd)
Crusoe	4.17 million	1.0/3	4th	Price is Right Special	7.31 million	1.7/5

Ah, but it goes deeper. This time, let's look at NBC's top rated shows on each night (except Saturday), their total viewers and position and what the top show on any network is. The first number is the average number of NBC viewers on the night.

	Total Viewers	18-49	Top NBC Show	Total Viewers	Position	Top Show of the Night	Total Viewers
Monday	6.10 million	2.6/6	Heroes	7.82 million	3rd	Dancing With The Stars	18.84 million
Tuesday	8.5 million	NA	L&O:SVU	9.4 million	2nd	NCIS	18.8 million
Wednesday	6.36 million	1.8/5	Law & Order	7.91 million	3rd	CMA Awards (Special)	15.87 million
Thursday	7.89 million	3.3/8	ER	9.80 million	2nd	CSI	18.93 million
Friday	4.34 million	1.2/4	Deal or No Deal	5.26 million	3rd	Ghost Whisperer	11.67 million
Sunday	13.20 million	4.9/12	Football	15.79 million	1st	Football	15.79 million

In other words, the only nights on which the top NBC shows finished higher than third in their time slots were on Thursday with a show that will be ending in February and on Sunday with a live sporting event that will be ending in January. Coincidentally, that live sporting event was the only NBC show to draw an audience of 10 million.

Next, let's compare ratings for the four new shows plus Lipstick Jungle in their timeslots versus the shows that were in those timeslots in 2006 and 2007. These are results from the second week of November in each year.

	Total Viewers	18-49	2007 Show	Total Viewers	18-49	2006 Show	Total Viewers	18-49
My Own Worst Enemy	4.25 million	1.8/5	Journeyman *	6.2 million	2.5/6	Studio 60 *	7.79 million	3.2/8
Knight Rider	5.34 million	1.5/4	Phenomenon *	6.16 million	2.0/6	Biggest Loser	6.31 million	2.8/7
Kath & Kim	5.08 million	2.1/6	Scrubs *	6.04 million	3.2/7	30 Rock	4.96 million	2.3/6
Crusoe	4.17 million	1.0/3	Friday Night Lights	4.74 million	2.2/6	Las Vegas	9.09 million	2.7/8
Lipstick Jungle	3.8 million	1.4/4	Las Vegas *	6.59 million	2.0/6	Law & Order	10.52 million	3.0/9

Shows marked with (*) were cancelled that season for poor ratings. Next, let's look at some shows that were cancelled quickly, with fewer 13 episodes aired. Because of the Writers Strike Bionic Woman aired all of the episodes shot. On the other hand Quarterlife aired once, and according to Wikipedia it was "the worst in-season performance in the 10 p.m. hour by an NBC show in at least 17 years." Until now.

	Season	Episodes	Average Viewers	Highest Viewers	18-49	Lowest Viewers	18-49
Kidnapped	2006-07	3 *	6.9 million	7.5 million	2.8/8	5.15 million	1.9/5
20 Good Years	2006-07	4	5.42 million	6.97 million	2.5/7	4.24 million	1.5/4
Black Donnellys	2006-07	6	6.54 million	8.42 million	3.5/9	5.42 million	2.0/5
Andy Barker P.I.	2006-07	4 *	4.87 million	5.84 million	2.4/6	4.07 million	1.8/5
Raines	2006-07	7 **	7.23 million	10.34 million	2.9/8	5.62 million	1.4/4
Bionic Woman	2007-08	8	8.71 million	13.59 million	5.5/14	5.99 million	2.2/5
Quarterlife	2007-08	1	3.86 million	3.86 million	1.6/4	3.86 million	1.6/4

Kidnapped and Andy Barker P.I. both aired episodes on Saturday nights after they were officially cancelled to burn off produced episodes. Those episodes aren't included here. Raines aired its first two episodes in the third hour of Thursday night, temporarily replacing ER, before moving to the third hour of Friday night where it sagged badly. The highest number of viewers for all of these shows was the pilot while the lowest rated show were final episodes that aired after the show was cancelled.

So what does it all mean? The first, obvious, thing is that the new NBC shows are being slaughtered by their competition. None of the new NBC shows is higher than third place in their time slots, and in the case of My Own Worst Enemy there were only three series on in that time slot. With the exception of Crusoe on Friday night, the total viewership of the top show in the new show's time slot is between two and three times as great as the NBC show. The only NBC show to be the top show of the night was Sunday Night Football, which leads to the obvious question of what NBC will do once the season ends. On most nights the best NBC show draws half the audience that winning series on the night achieved with the exception of ER, another series that won't be around for the second half of the season. What will NBC do without ER? The logical answer is that it will most likely nosedive on Thursdays the way that it has on every other night. Each of the cancelled shows in 2007 beat the shows that replaced it in both total audience and rating in the 18-49 demographic. Furthermore, with the exception of 30 Rock (which was a 45 minute debut episode) the 2006-07 shows in the time slot beat not only the current show in the timeslot but also the 2007-08 show. (One interesting thing is that while Studio 60 had a lower retention out of Heroes, it had both a higher number of total viewers and a higher rating in the 18-49 demographic. Make of that what you will.)

Maybe the most interesting thing here is the shows that were cancelled quickly. By just about any standard – average number of viewers, greatest number of viewers, lowest number of viewers – most of these shows drew a better audience than the shows which NBC under Ben Silverman put on the air. And that's not even counting established shows that Silverman, and before him Reilly, cancelled. Just as an example, on the worst season the Las Vegas had, on a Friday night with a weak lead-in (and yes, I am a Friday Night Lights fan, but the show's performance was weak), the show outdrew the shows that replaced it. Shows that were cancelled quickly for the most part outperform shows that are hanging on.

The blame for all of this lands squarely on the shoulders of Ben Silverman. It was Silverman who came up with the idea of not doing pilots for new shows but rather choosing new series based on scripts only. The most successful of his new shows, Knight Rider, had a pilot of sorts in the form of the TV movie that convinced the network to produce a new show. Of course they changed the concept after the movie was made to the point where it was unrecognisable but fans of the old show and the movie. Kath & Kim had the dubious advantage of having the original Australian series as a model that it could build on. It was Silverman who decided to drop many of the shows in Kevin Reilly's 2007-08 season and to not produce new episodes of the shows that he did retain. Based entirely on the NBC shows that I've seen – all of the Silverman series except Crusoe – and I have to say that all of the shows that Silverman came up with are significantly and visibly worse than even the mediocre shows that Kevin Reilly gave the green light to in 2006 and 2007. Tell me the truth, wouldn't you rather watch Kidnapped, Raines, Studio 60 or Journeyman than Knight Rider or My Own Worst Enemy?

So I promised you a twist ending to this little tale and while it's not exactly O. Henry quality, here it is. Despite various stories from Nikki Finke concerning the likelihood of Ben Silverman being fired, and even naming former BBC Worldwide America executive Paul Telegdy as a possible Silverman replacement (although initially he seems to be a likely candidate to replace Craig Plestis as Executive VP in charge of "Alternate programming" – reality shows to the rest of us), it seems that he isn't likely to be going anywhere. TVSquad quotes an article from the New York Post's Page Six which indicates that not only is Silverman's job safe, but it seems that the network is actually happy with what he's accomplished. According to the article, "In fact, one network insider actually praised Silverman, saying, 'The company is very happy with Ben. He is deep in negotiations to re-up his contract with NBC, and he has the network up 50 percent profit from year to year.' TV analysts say ratings have become less important as the viewing audience has scattered to proliferating cable channels. Silverman told The Post last summer: 'We're managing for margins and not for ratings.'" As for the problems with Lipstick Jungle, and My Own Worst Enemy as well as the decline in the ratings for Heroes blame seems to be going to Universal Media Studios president Katherine Pope, who also produced last season's Bionic Woman. According to one network insider, quoted in the Page Six article, "They call her the black widow. Every program she touches turns to death. She is on very thin ice." Meanwhile Silverman is appearing on shows like Charlie Rose where he talks less about his programming failures and more about technology and Hulu. There are a couple of wince worthy moments in the interview, particularly in the last couple of minutes when Silverman takes credit for 30 Rock (a series that was approved by Kevin Reilly) and when he talks about Brandon Tartikoff and "quality shows," something which the current line-up seems to show that Silverman has little claim to promoting.

And so, despite the fact that NBC has suffered some of its worst ratings in recent memory – probably since another Silverman (Fred Silverman) was president of NBC Entertainment and cancelled his entire 1978 Fall lineup – Ben Silverman is being regarded as a success because he's increased the network's profits even with declining audiences a distinct decline in the quality of programming that the network is presenting. Blame should be shared with others such as Pope and Plestis of course, but it should be remembered that it was Silverman who came up with the "brilliant" idea of not producing pilots for new series, and not presenting their programs at an upfront meeting. If the true measure of a TV network's success is based on profit margins rather than ratings, one has to wonder whether Silverman will be quite the "boy wonder" that he currently appears to be when advertising revenues decline as a result of those poor rating that he seems not to be managing for. I suppose it is more likely that, like Jeff Zucker, Ben Silverman won't be fired but rather "fired up" into a more highly paid and important position. And that would seem to be the real problem with NBC.

Breaking News – Kevin Reilly Leaving NBC

Variety reports that NBC Entertainment President Kevin Reilly (on the right in this photo with NBC-Universal CEO Jeff Zucker) will be leaving his post with an official announcement expected no later than Tuesday. The decision to fire Reilly was apparently made on Friday but the parties had to negotiate a settlement of Reilly's contract which was renewed in March of this year. Reilly's replacement is expected to be producer Ben Silverman, although he is not expected to hold the same title as Reilly had and may in fact be partnered Marc Graboff who is expected to run the business side of Reilly's job. According to Variety Silverman, who created The Office and The Biggest Loser for NBC as well as Ugly Betty for ABC "is expected to take on a role giving him oversight of the bigger picture at the network. He'll also play a key role in attracting talent to the network." The status of NBC development chief Katherine Pope, who was generally considered to be Reilly's eventual successor, is also unclear. Variety suggests that "there's a very real chance she could end up leaving NBC U, people with knowledge of the matter said."

Apparently the situation at NBC came to a head when Reilly learned that Graboff – who is Vice President in charge of NBC's West Coast operations and above Reilly in the network hierarchy – and NBC-Universal President and CEO Jeff Zucker were interviewing candidates for a job that according to two people interviewed by the LA Times "would usurp much of Reilly's authority." This was followed last Friday by an anonymous e-mail sent to Reilly stating that Silverman would be replacing Reilly. According to the Times this led Reilly to ask NBC to release him from his contract, and Zucker was willing to do so regardless of the costs which are likely to be considerable.

Kevin Reilly was initially in the Programming & Development department at NBC between 1988 and 1994 where he helped shepherd projects like ER and Homicide: Life On The Streets onto the line-up. He left the network to serve as president of the Brillstein-Grey production company which developed shows including The Sopranos, Just Shoot Me NewsRadio and The Steve Harvey Show during his tenure. He left there to become president of the FX cable station where he was responsible for the development of such scripted productions as The Shield and Nip Tuck. He returned to NBC in 2003 as president of primetime development until Zucker ascended to his current position in December 2005.

His time as head of NBC's Entertainment Division was marked by the embarrassing situation surrounding the 2006-07 upfronts, when NBC announced its line-up only to totally reorganise the schedule less than a week later after ABC announced its line-up. That line-up was an embarrassment for Reilly with high profile ratings failures including Kidnapped and Studio 60 On The Sunset Strip. Reilly is credited with supporting and nurturing a number of shows including My Name Is Earl and The Office, and in the 2006-07 season had a singular bright spot with Heroes. His support of quality programming led to a full season renewal for Studio 60, and second season renewals for Friday Night Lights and 30 Rock even though neither series posted stellar ratings. The 2007-08 schedule seems to also at least attempt to live up to Reilly's philosophy (borrowed from Grant Tinker) of making quality the first priority with ratings success following naturally.

Reilly's departure from NBC – with Pope presumably soon to follow given her feelings about Zucker and the NBC old boys (reported by Deadline Hollywood Daily) – is yet another example of Jeff Zucker's habit of succeeding by failing. After all it wasn't Reilly who kept Matt Leblanc's sitcom (feel free to insert an 'H' if you want) Joey on the air for two season or some of the other moves that Zucker made in his process of failing up the corporate ladder. I'm not saying that Kevin Reilly was a great President of the Entertainment Division – the reshuffling of the 2006-07 season and the subsequent debacle would seem to disprove that – but I do think that he deserved better than the "behind his back" machinations that led to his resignation, particularly as leadership at the network seemed happy enough with him not quite three months ago to give him a multi-year contract extension.

Of Frogs And Games And Enemas

Several things have come across the wires - well the Internet really - which while not worth in depth commentary are still interesting. Either that or I'm reaching for something to write during this irritating summer season.

Item: Here's an interesting little comment that I snagged off of the Huffington Post from contributor Adam McKay. What you see here is part of a larger article but this is the important bit, at least for our purposes. (Oh, and by the way, the spelling errors? His.)

"Shows like Fear Factor, Big Brother and The Apprentice seem to me like the emotional equivilent of the Roman Colliseum. We are fascinated by how much emotional and psychological abuse these people will take or heap on each other. Now here's the thing, if I were alive during Roman times I would hopefully decry the barbarism of the Colliseum, but at the same time it would be hard not to buy a ticket to the Six Aegean Slaves Vs a Rhinocerus matinee. Or how could you turn away from the Four Ostriches With Razors on the Talons Vs Two Monkeys and a Cobra. It's the same with these TV shows. Donald Trump is so awful and idiotic to these perspiring wannabe entrepenuers, it's enthralling. I can't wait for the day when one contestant says to Trump `What are you talking about Don? You inherited your seed money.'"

Comment: I had actually intended to write a lengthy commentary on this statement but I could never get it up to my standards so screw it. Bad spelling aside, he has a bit of a point. There is a certain fascination with watching this simply because it's unusual. There is an aspect of a freak show to many reality shows (however I will defend to the death the proposition that The Amazing Race should not, on the whole, be lumped into the catchall of "reality show" but that's an argument for another day). But consider this, no Roman worth his salarium would have questioned let alone decried the gladiatorial games - it was part of his culture - so what does it say about our culture that so many reality shows do well?

Item: Princes of Malibu has been pulled from the Fox lineup after airing only two of its six episodes. Linda Thompson and David Foster - the mother and stepfather of Brandon and Brody Jenner, the "princes" of the title - are getting a divorce after 14 years of marriage. Some people have suggested that the series, which had four more episodes in the can, was cancelled because of the divorce.

Comment: The divorce was apparently planned before the series went on the air, so suggesting that the divorce was the reason for the cancellation is a bit farfetched. The really interesting thing, although reportedly purely coincidental, is that while the split was only announced this weekend, Linda Thompson filed for divorce on July 11 - the day after Princes Of Malibu debuted. Since it was being destroyed in the ratings, it is perhaps a vain hope that someone at Fox suffered a bout of good taste which led to the cancellation. No, this is Fox we're talking about.

Item: The WB Network has decided that Michigan J. Frog, long the symbol of the network has (dare I say it - yes I do) croaked. At least as a network mascot. In a statement to the Television Critics Association on Friday Garth Ancier, WB Network chairman stated "In my opinion the frog is dead and buried. The frog was a symbol that was especially, in the extensive testing that we did, that perpetuated the young teen feel of the network, and that is not the image we want to put to our audience."

Comment: "Captain, the Titanic has struck an iceberg. What shall we do?" "Move that deck chair over there and put this one next to it." Even though they've been putting together some shows that are better than UPN, The WB's ratings have been declining and with PAX mostly gone the two are fighting to avoid being the lowest rated commercial network in the United States and the best Ancier can come up with is getting rid fo the network's symbol? I'm even going to suggest that even if the new shows that The WB brings to the table this year are enough to reassert the network's ratings position, dumping Michigan J. is going to be a move that backfires. Remember what happened when NBC dumped the Peacock for that stylized "N". Mark Evanier has a rather nice history of Michigan J. Frog on his blog. As for me, I'm on board with any movement to bring back the "green guy" but as a Canadian I don't really count.

Item: In his speech to the Television Critics Association, NBC Entertainment President Kevin Reilly stated: "Last season for us was kind of like a colonic. It wasn't a lot of fun to go through at the time, but it's going to be healthy in the long run. It literally took any residual sense of entitlement or complacency at our company and blew it out." Later in his statement, speaking specifically about this coming season he said, "Odds are we're not going to see a ratings difference. I'm pretty ... sure you're going to see a new tone coming out of this place.... That sense of entitlement of who we are is gone."

Comment: In truth I think he may have something there. It seems to me that every so often the networks need to get the complacency blown out of them so to speak. Who can forget the Fred Silverman years at NBC. In one season every new show that the network premiered was cancelled, but that period led to a series of golden years that included Hill Street Blues, Cheers, St. Elsewhere and The Cosby Show. CBS had a period not so long ago where their shows were both skewing older than any other network and drawing low ratings as that, and look at them now. Before this past 2004-05 season, ABC was mired in third or fourth place and now they have a diverse embarrassment of riches, from Lost to Desperate Housewives to Grey's Anatomy. Complacency stalls innovation and in a market where networks are not only competing against each other but against cable "networks" programming heads like Reilly and Ancier and the rest need to push beyond their comfort zone, (for better or for worse Reality TV was one such push), and that means doing more than just dumping the network mascot.