2010-11 Season Night By Night

It's time now to take a look at the Fall 2010-11 TV schedule on a day to day basis. What I'm trying to do her is to handicap each night's programming and to attempt – sight unseen, not even a trailer (maybe a couple of commercials but that's all) – to pick the winners and losers from each night. It's an inexact science that verges on Voodoo, and I'm not much of a practitioner. My predictions last year were sufficiently imprecise that I can claim victory (following the rule for all prophets to keep your predictions sufficiently vague so that you can spin them however you like after the fact). And that's the policy I intend to follow this time around as well: keep them vague unless I really feel committed about something...and don't feel committed about anything. As I stated last year, there are two rules to keep in mind: nothing on The CW will win its time slot; and in competition between a new show and an established series, the established series will usually win – particularly if the established series has completed its second season – unless the show has started to lose viewers in previous seasons (or its on The CW). With these concepts in hand, let's look at the new schedule. (All times are Eastern.)

Sunday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
7:00-7:30	America's Funniest Home Videos	60 Minutes	The O/T	Football Night In America	Local
7:30-8:00	America's Funniest Home Videos	60 Minutes	The O/T	Football Night In America	Local
8:00-8:30	Extreme Makeover Home Edition	The Amazing Race	The Simpsons	Football Night In America	Local
8:30-9:00	Extreme Makeover Home Edition	The Amazing Race	The Cleveland Show	Sunday Night Football	Local
9:00-9:30	Desperate Housewives	Undercover Boss	Family Guy	Sunday Night Football	Local
9:30-10:00	Desperate Housewives	Undercover Boss	American Dad	Sunday Night Football	Local
10:00-11:00	Brothers & Sisters	CSI: Miami	Local	Sunday Night Football	Local

This is NBC's big night, about the only night they're going to win and that dominance will end with the Football season. Of the rest CBS should win the first two hours (60 Minutes, The Amazing Race). The battle between Desperate Housewives and Undercover Boss looks like it will be intense. Ratings for Desperate Housewives have been slipping in the past year but the question is whether Undercover Boss can stay as popular as it was in the inaugural half season. Since the show debuted following the Super Bowl – meaning that it was running against Celebrity Apprentice and the predominantly male Football audience was up for picking – we have no idea how much of its audience was people who would normally be watching the NFL game. I'd say that Desperate Housewives will probably edge out Undercover Boss but the show's ratings will continue to slip. The third hour is the time slot with the greatest questions. Taking Football out of the equation, the question becomes whether the relocates CSI: Miami, which had been showing some significant slippage in its Monday night slot last season will be able to deliver its audience to Sunday nights. I'm prepared to suggest that Brothers & Sisters will have a fairly easy time against CBS, at least until the end of the Football season.

Monday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	Dancing with the Stars	How I Met Your Mother	House	Chuck	90210
8:30-9:00	Dancing with the Stars	Rules Of Engagement	House	Chuck	90210
9:00-9:30	Dancing with the Stars	Two and a Half Men	LONESTAR	THE EVENT	Gossip Girl
9:30-10:00	Dancing with the Stars	MIKE & MOLLY	LONESTAR	THE EVENT	Gossip Girl
10:00-11:00	Castle	HAWAII FIVE-0	Local	CHASE	Local

Dancing With The Stars will continue to dominate the night along. The first hour will be a three-way battle – sorry friends of Chuck but your show has sadly been labelled a "cult favourite" and won't be growing an audience. I'm less than impressed with Rules Of Engagement but like an old-time Timex watch it keeps just ticking and ticking and ticking, so I suppose I'm missing something. The second hour narrows down to a two way battle because I just don't see Lonestar doing much. People who watch broadcast TV don't seem to like shows about criminals – remember Smith a few years ago or that CW (by way of MRC) show a couple of seasons ago? Both shows died fast deaths. Lonestar may look good but I don't see it overcoming viewer resistance. The same principle holds true with The Event; we've seen that viewers also don't really want these extended conspiracy theory series, no matter how well they're done. I'm slightly unsure of is how well the new CBS comedy Mike & Molly will perform. The show's pedigree is certainly strong as a Chuck Lorre comedy, and the two main characters are played by actors who are familiar to viewers. In the beginning at least the third hour presents the biggest questions. Castle is the only incumbent in the time slot, which is usually a good thing, but CBS is certainly trying to assert supremacy in the time-slot by moving the high profile newcomer Hawaii Five-0 into the spot vacated by CSI: Miami. The wildcard here is Chase. If people turn into Hawaii Five-0 to see what the fuss is about and then decide that like several other recent remakes it isn't worth the trouble, then this show might benefit. Right now, I don't really see it happening.

Tuesday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-9:00	NO ORDINARY FAMILY	NCIS	Glee	The Biggest Loser	One Tree Hill
9:00-9:30	Dancing with the Stars Results	NCIS: Los Angeles	RAISING HOPE	The Biggest Loser	Life Unexpected
9:30-10:00	Dancing with the Stars Results	NCIS: Los Angeles	RUNNING WILDE	The Biggest Loser	Life Unexpected
10:00-11:00	DETROIT 1-8-7	The Good Wife	Local	Parenthood	Local

Here's a surprising fact about Tuesday nights. In the second half of the 2009-10 season, three shows in the first hour of Tuesdays were generating over 10 million viewers each. On a weekly basis. Based on the changes that the other networks have made and what CBS hasn't changed,I feel confident in saying that CBS will win the night overall. The problem is with the other networks. One of the big Tuesday battles is going to be between ABC and Fox in the first Hour, and it's going to be a battle for second place behind NCIS. I love the idea behind No Ordinary Family and I've been a fan of Michael Chiklis since his first series The Commish. Played right and against the right competition this show could find a following. Glee isn't that competition. First it's an established show even if it isn't established in this time slot. Secondly Glee is the more realistic show and I really think that it will work better than a show that seems to be trying to be a live action version of The Incredibles. Turning to the second hour, I have no hope that the Fox comedies will have any success. First, they're Fox comedies and second they're on opposite the Dancing With The Stars Results show – in truth the only variety show left on TV, with singing, dancing and (allegedly) comedy – and NCIS: Los Angeles which was the highest rated new show of the 2009-10 season. Regardless of the merit of the two comedies (and I don't have much hope for them in that respect) that's pretty heady opposition to buck. And that doesn't even figure in the second hour of Biggest Loser. The final hour of the night features The Good Wife, the first CBS show in some time which actually managed to run the entire season and be renewed for a second season. In most weeks it won the time slot. Whether that will happen again depends on how well Detroit 1-8-7 does with the public. Parenthood is a good show, but to my mind it is in the wrong time slot and isn't a contender to win the third hour either in overall ratings or in the demographic. Thus it comes down to whether Detroit 1-8-7 can draw an audience. The show sounds like it could be worth seeing but whether the documentary format works as well with a drama as it does with a comedy is a major question.

Wednesday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	The Middle	Survivor	Lie To Me	UNDERCOVERS	America's Next Top Model
8:30-9:00	BETTER TOGETHER	Survivor	Lie To Me	UNDERCOVERS	America's Next Top Model
9:00-9:30	Modern Family	Criminal Minds	Hell's Kitchen	Law & Order: SVU	HELLCATS
9:30-10:00	Cougar Town	Criminal Minds	Hell's Kitchen	Law & Order: SVU	HELLCATS
10:00-11:00	THE WHOLE TRUTH	THE DEFENDERS	Local	LAW & ORDER: LOS ANGELES	Local

Lots of questions here. This could be NBC best night outside of Sunday night when they have Football. Survivor should win the first hour overall, and probably in the demographic, so the question becomes which of the other four shows (I'm not counting the CW in this) will come in second and survive. I'm not sure that Lie To Me can really anchor the night. It worked fine after House and might have worked against the sort of shows that CBS had there previously, but will be in big trouble against Survivor. The Middle isn't the strongest of the returning ABC comedies but I don't think they could have run the best of the ABC comedies at this hour and still have Modern Family be as good as it currently is. I'm really interested in seeing Undercovers, and if this is done properly it it could be the show that finishes second to Survivor. The second hour belongs to Criminal Minds and Law & Order SVU. I'm not entirely happy about the decision to run L&O: SVU here – I'd much prefer to see in the third hour of Tueseday nights while Parenthood moved down to an earlier hour. A fall season of Hell's Kitchen – if indeed this is what Fox intends to do after the Baseball playoffs – is basically a placeholder until American Idol comes back or they're first to move things about. The ABC comedies will do well if not spectacularly. This brings us to the third hour, or the "Court Hour" as I'm beginning to call it. I'm going to offer a theory about The Defenders, a show that seems totally out of place not just in the time-slot but in the whole CBS line-up. My theory is that this is a placeholder and that the Untitled Criminal Minds spinoff will be slotted into this time when the show is "ready" and this show fails. I'm pretty certain that the show will fail based on the actors, the premise and the competition. I'm pretty certain that what will work here is what has gone before even if it is in a different skin. I'm talking of course about Law & Order: Los Angeles. I may think that the differences between Los Angeles and New York aren't sufficiently huge to justify a new show (now if they'd imported the British version of Law & Order they might have something different enough to be intriguing) but I'm convinced it's going to work better than either of the other two shows in the time-slot.

Thursday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	MY GENERATION	The Big Bang Theory	Bones	Community	Vampire Diaries
8:30-9:00	MY GENERATION	$#!* MY DAD SAYS	Bones	The Office	Vampire Diaries
9:00-9:30	Grey's Anatomy	CSI	Fringe	30 Rock	NIKITA
9:30-10:00	Grey's Anatomy	CSI	Fringe	OUTSOURCED	NIKITA
10:00-11:00	Private Practice	The Mentalist	Local	LOVE BITES	Local

The last time that CBS aired two half hour comedies at 8 p.m. Eastern Time (currently the first hour of primetime) was in the 1965-66 season when the network had the combination of Gilligan's Island and My Three Sons. Of course back then the networks were programming from 7:30 p.m. on so the 8 p.m. time period wasn't as big as it is today (for the record, the 7:30 p.m. timeslot on CBS featured a little show called The Munsters). The changes on the night are relatively small in terms of changing shows around but I think that the philosophy involved is very significant. In the first hour let's dismiss My Generation – if it lasts 13 weeks I'll be very surprised – and the always reliable Bones and turn to the confrontation of the night, the CBS comedies versus the NBC comedies. Community has never been a huge ratings draw – really none of the NBC comedies other than The Office have been – while The Big Bang Theory has been a breakout hit on Monday nights. The question is whether it can anchor a time slot effectively since there is a school of thought that suggests that the show's success is predicated on its Monday lead-in, Two And A Half Men. I don't agree with that assessment. While I don't think that The Big Bang Theory will draw the same sort of numbers that it drew on Mondays, I am confident that it will win the overall and probably the demographic in its time slot. And I predict that $#!* My Dad Says will be competitive with The Office in its time. I expect the status quo for the rest of the night. Outsourced might work well enough for the network to give it a full season and maybe more, but Love Bites is probably DOA.

Friday

	ABC	CBS	Fox	NBC	The CW
8:00-8:30	Secret Millionaire	Medium	Human Target	Who Do You Think You Are?/SCHOOL PRIDE	Smallville
9:00-10:00	BODY OF PROOF	CSI: NY	THE GOOD GUYS	Dateline NBC	Supernatural
10:00-11:00	20/20	BLUE BLOODS	Local	OUTLAW	Local

Wow! All of a sudden Friday is a hot night for the networks. Previously an under-programmed wasteland for reality shows we suddenly have nine scripted programs on the evening. As a result I believe that networks that program reality shows and news programs will suffer. While I don't think those shows will be cancelled – on the whole they're cheap to produce – they're going to hurt the networks that program them. This definitely plays into the hands of CBS and to lesser extents FOX and The CW. My expectation is that having Secret Millionaire as a lead will hurt ABC's Body Of Proof while Outlaw will suffer with School Pride and Dateline NBC preceding it. FOX has a potential problem developing with The Good Guys. Assuming that the show does not do well during its Summer run it is likely that the network will pull the plug on the show before September. Since FOX has tentatively placed Kitchen Nightmares in the time slot for the mid-season, their programming strategy is at risk. In terms of viewership, my assumption is that Medium, Human Target and Smallville will all draw from different audiences. They probably don't have too many problems facing them. In the second hour it shapes up to being a battle between Body Of Proof and CSI: New York. Even though the show has been losing audience in the Wednesday time slot, if they can retain most of their audience they should do quite well. This doesn't necessarily mean that Body of Proof won't draw enough of an audience to stay on the air but I'm not sure it will win its time. The network is going to have to be patient with it. As for the battle between Blue Bloods and Outlaw, I expect Blue Bloods to be dominant. While I like Jimmy Smits, I find the premise of Outlaw (an appointee to the Supreme Court resigning and re-entering private practice as a lawyer?...working for the little guy??) to be somewhere outside of the realm of believability. Give the third hour – and the night – to CBS but with credit to the others for not giving up on the night.

Life kept interrupting me while I was trying to get this post done. One other thing; I like to post video clips from the new shows in a separate post but the US networks are definitely not making it easy for me; I can't find FOX or ABC and most CBS clips tell me that they "are not available in your region." It may take a while to find what I need.