Mixed Results for The Rules

Well that was an “interesting” Emmy Awards. There were enough surprises to make the alteration of the voting rules to a single round plurality rather than a ranked ballot majority seem like a “good thing” and yet it is hard not to say that things haven’t changed that much.

Unlike a lot of people I was not in love with Jimmy Kimmel’s comedy stylings. There was some good stuff and then there was something like the intro of Bill Cosby that fell flat on it’s collective ass. The business with the peanut butter sandwiches seemed like it was recycled from the pizza delivery from a previous Oscar telecast. Like all of these things it was pretty hit and miss as far as I’m concerned. I think you have to ask why the comedy went on to the point where they had to eliminate the clips for the nominees in the Outstanding Actress in a Drama category.

But of course what I really want to talk about is how well I did or didn’t do using my rules to predict the results. And the answer is that I was right 50% of the time. Which means I was wrong 50% of the time. That’s glass half empty/half full territory. Watching the show I was in the “glass half empty” camp, disappointed and wondering about the validity of my predictive model. Then I moved to the glass half full side with the realization that 50% is probably better than most people did in their pools. And besides in some cases it was a matter of interpretation.

Let’s break things down.

Outstanding Supporting Actor Comedy
Predicted – Tony Hale, Veep
Winner – Louie Anderson, Baskets

Okay, this is a big surprise. Hale was a two time winner on an HBO show and Anderson was on a show that was unknown to me which I probably wouldn’t watch even if I knew about it. I was at a point where I wasn’t aware that Louie Anderson was playing a woman in the show. Apparently the show, or at least his performance qualifies as a hot new thing though.

Outstanding Supporting Actress Comedy
Predicted – Allison Janney, Mom
Winner – Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live

Another surprise, maybe bigger for me than the Tony Hale loss if ‘m being honest. I wasn`t aware of McKinnon because I don’t watch SNL, and I have a bit of a bias on this since she’s on a show that doesn’t compete in the Outstanding Comedy Series but rather in the Variety Sketch Series category where it lost to Key & Peele. But there’s no category for performers in Variety Sketch series so there you go. I have a suspicion that this is a caegory where the change in the voting system came into play a bit.

Outstanding Supporting Actor Drama
Predicted – Peter Dinklage, Game Of Thrones
Winner – Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
 
I`m not sure but this may have surprised everyone. Bloodline isn`t one of the Netflix shows I watch, and given that they cancelled it after its upcoming third season apparently other people don`t watch it either (but who can tell with Netflix). Given that a lot of the talk around these Emmys was about how Game Of Thrones was going to dominate every category it was in, and that Peter Dinklage had won the category twice in the past, not to mention that Mendelsohn’s character was killed at the end of the first season and that much of his participation in the second season was through the medium of flashbacks I’m not sure it was outright predictable.
 
Outstanding Supporting Actress Drama
Predicted – Lena Headey, Game Of Thrones
Winner – Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
 
I said at the beginning that I considered this one of the most wide open categories of the night and I was proven right. I went with Headey in the anticipation of a Game Of Thrones sweep given that the previous season’s winner Uzo Aduba not receiving a nomination. I also said however that the Academy could very well go with Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey on the grounds that it was the show’s last season. I think that having three women from Game of Thrones in the category probably resulted in vote splitting and that using the plurality versus the majority system may have killed any chance that a Game of Thrones actress could have won. And Kimmel’s bit about Smith not showing up and thus not being getting the Emmy? Not really funny.
 
Outstanding Lead Actor Comedy
Predicted – Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Winner – Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
 
Got it right. And while Anthony Anderson might have done one of the best episodes of the season on Black-ish I don’t think there was much chance he was going to win.
 
Outstanding Lead Actress Comedy
Predicted – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Winner – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Was there really any doubt?

Outstanding Lead Actor Drama
Predicted – Rami Malek, Mr Robot
Winner – Rami Malek, Mr Robot

Maybe my best pick of the lot. No past winner (for the same part) in the category and no one from an HBO show. Mr Robot was the recipient of a lot of critical buzz and Malek is a young guy. Wasn’t surprised to see him win, won’t be surprised to see him repeat unless something big shows up next year.

Outstanding Lead Actress Drama
Predicted – Viola Davis, How To Get Away With Murder
Winner – Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

Every so often yo go to the track and the longshot comes in and you cheer even though you had your money on one of the favourites because it is just such a great story. So happy to see Tatiana win (and not just because she’s from Saskatchewan) inspite of all the obstacles in her way: going up against a previous winner, being on a science fiction-y show like Orphan Black, being on a show on a small network. The fact that she plays multiple characters (the clones) each very different in speech, character and even appearance is a bravura performance that thankfully wasn’t overlooked.

Outstanding Lead Actress Drama
Predicted – Veep
Winner – Veep
I know that some people complained afterwards that Black-ish was the best comedy on network TV and was robbed of the award, but is anyone really shocked or that unhappy that Veep won? I mean anyone who doesn’t work on the show…or for ABC?

Outstanding Drama Series
Predicted – Game Of Thrones
Winner – Game of Thrones

Anyone really surprised with this result? Spectacle with good writing wins every time.

Extra categories: I didn’t predicted these “officially” but I did nail them. In the Outstanding Variety Talk Show category I mentioned that there’s a big gap left by the departure of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert’s migration to CBS to host The Late Show in terms of doing political hunour. Of the nominees in the category only Last Week Tonight with John Oliver really filled that niche, so an easy pick. As was Limited Series categories. I predicted “Based on everything I’ve heard, expect a lot of awards for the cast writers and directors of The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story before its eventual coronation.” The People v. O.J. Simpson won for Writing, Supporting Actor, Lead Actor and Lead Actress before winning Outstanding Limited Series. The only Limited Series categories it didn’t win were Supporting Actress (where no one from the series was nominated) and Directing.

2016 Emmy Awards – By The Rules

Or as it should probably be known: the night that a broadcast network gives up three hours at the start of the season to honour cable and streaming TV – particularly HBO. It’s true. Cable and streaming TV will take away most of the awards on Sunday night. Of the 63 nominees in the ten categories I look at here, twelve are on broadcast TV and of those twelve, four of the nominees are dramas only two of those are from a commercial network (as opposed to PBS). But debating the merits of having commercial network TV running a party for cable isn’t up for debate here. Picking winners is.
 
I’m going to try to predict this year’s Emmy awards “scientifically” using four basic rules. Two of the rules are Positive, one is Negative, and one is what I guess you could call Neutral or Preferential. There’s also a fifth rule that’s not yet proven. These predictions are based on things I’ve observed about the Emmys from long before I started this Blog and even before I had the Internet.
 
There is one thing that could disrupt “The Rules” and that is that the Emmy have adopted a new voting system. In the past they have used a “preferential ballot” in which the voters ranked the nominees from your favourite to your least favourite of the nominees. In tabulating the results the votes were counted and the show with the least number of first choice ballots was eliminated. The votes from that show were redistributed to the voters‘  second choices, and so on until one show had 50% of the vote. The Academy has switched to a plurality system (or “first past the post” as we call it in Canada) where voters pick the show they want to see win in the category and vote for it. The show with the most votes wins outright even if, in a six-way race they have 17% of the vote and the other five shows have a total 16.6% each. What this will mean to the Emmys is yet to be proven, but I’m predicting (hoping for actually) limited change.
 
So what are these rules? They’re actually pretty simple:
 
Rule 1: Winners win….until you know, they don’t.
The Emmys are unique among entertainment awards shows in that the same show or people can win year after year. The equivalent at the Oscars would be for last year’s Best Picture winner to win again this year. It doesn’t happen at the Tonys, the Grammys or the Oscars, just the Emmys and any other awards show that touches on TV. And the Emmys tend to give awards to previous season’s winners.
 
Rule 2: The “Hot New Thing” can overturn previous season’s winners, but it’s the academy that decide what the hot new thing is.
Funny thing about the TV awards. The people who choose the nominees and who vote for the winners don’t actually watch a hell of a lot of TV. TV critics (the pros) watch a lot of TV but the people at the TV academy are too busy working making TV shows to actually watch TV shows on a regular basis. What they know about what’s hot and what’s not is generally based on ratings and buzz and whatever  they decide is “quality” TV this year.
 
Rule 3: Premium cable trumps basic cable which trumps broadcast TV.
And by premium cable I mean HBO. This year HBO had 40 nominations, while Showtime had nine and Cinemax (!) had one. Those 40 nominations for HBO were greater than ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC combined although when you factor PBS into the mix it is greater. We don’t know yet were streaming video factors into this except to say that while they get more nominations than The CW, Amazon and Netflix have had very limited success.
 
Rule 4: Fantasy and Science Fiction don’t win… unless they come from HBO.
In fact Fantasy and Science Fiction shows almost never get nominations unless they’re on HBO. Battlestar Galactica may have been one of the best shows on all of TV during its run but never earned a Primetime Emmy nomination. Creative Arts Emmys sure, but not Emmy’s from Writing, Directing or Acting, let alone Outstanding Drama Series which are the categories being awarded on Sunday.
 
Let’s take a look at the series and acting categories and apply the rules. I’ll put the rule number that applies to the person or show beside their name. Previously nominated shows are marked with a *. As an added bonus I’ve found the odds that are being offered on the various nominees in the major categories (which is to say not the supporting categories) from a number of online sites that are offering Emmy bets. They are BetFred, 888Sports, William Hill, Unibet, and 32Red. I’l try to give an average of what they say with odds of the favourite in italics.
 
So who is going to get the chance to pay $400 to buy the trophy that they “won” (that’s right, the Emmys charge the winners the cost of manufacturing the Emmys if they actually want to take it home with them – cheap bastards)?
 
Outstanding Supporting Actor Comedy

• Louis Anderson, Baskets, FX
• Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, FOX *
• Titus Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Netflix *
• Ty Burrell, Modern Family, ABC * (1a)
• Tony Hale, Veep, HBO * (1,3) 
• Keegan-Michael Key, Key and Peele, Comedy Central *
• Matt Walsh, Veep, HBO (3)

So here we have a category with two “new” faces (I really can’t think of Louie Anderson as “new”) two broadcast shows, and no “hot new thing.” Last season’s winner Tony Hale is here as is previous winner in this category Ty Burrell. As much as I like Titus Burgess, he’s out of the “hot new thing” group. As much as I like Andre Braugher, a win on his part would be a huge upset. Ty Burrell is the only cast member from Modern Family to be nominated this year in a category that once was almost entirely made up of people from that show. At this stage I see a win by him as an incredible long-shot. Give it to Tony Hale again.

Outstanding Supporting Actress Comedy

• Anna Chlumsky, Veep, HBO (3) *
• Gaby Hoffman, Transparent, Amazon *
• Allison Janney, Mom, CBS * (1)
• Judith Light, Transparent, Amazon
• Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live, NBC *
• Niecy Nash, Getting On, HBO (3)*

Saying that Allison Janney will win in this category goes against every principle of The Rules, but it may prompt a special “supporting categories rule” namely that if an actress is nominated in a “Supporting” category for playing a role that is essentially a lead role they have a leg up on anyone else in the category. Except for Judith Light, everyone nominated here has been beaten by Janney – twice in the case of McKinnon and Chlumsky. There’s no hot new thing in this category so just give it to Janney again.

 Outstanding Supporting Actor Drama

• Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul, AMC *
• Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones, HBO * (1, 3)
• Kit Harrington, Game of Thrones, HBO (3)
• Michael Kelly, House of Cards, Netflix *
• Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline, Netflix *
• Jon Voigt, Ray Donovan, Showtime

For the most part this is the same group that Peter Dinklage beat last year. The only additions are Jon Voigt and Kit Harrington. Voigt is a good actor, but the Emmys tend to ignore movie stars in most cases – see Kevin Spacey and Matthew McConaughey as examples of actors who were supposed to set the Emmys on fire and ended up taking home nothing. And speaking of Spacey, I fear that if House of Cards hasn’t won an Emmy by now the chances are pretty slim for anyone on that series. As for Harrington, the past season of Game of Thrones has been pretty heavy on Jon Snow, but the fact is that I’ve always found Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister a more fascinating character. Dinklage for the win unless of course having two actors from the series leads to vote splitting under the new rules. But I honestly don’t think it’s likely.

Outstanding Supporting Actress Drama

• Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones, HBO * (3)
• Lena Headey, Game of Thrones, HBO * (3)
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey, PBS (1a)
• Maura Tierney, The Affair, Showtime
• Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones, HBO (3)
• Constance Zimmer, Unreal, Lifetime (2)

Maybe the hardest category in this whole thing to pick based on The Rules…or even picked on merit. Last year’s winner, Uzo Aduba (Orange Is The New Black), wasn’t nominated. Only two of the actresses who were nominated last year were nominated again this year (Emilia Clark, and Lena Headey) because Mad Men and The Good Wife have gone off the air and last year’s Downton Abbey actress was replaced by the only previous winner in this category, Dame Maggie Smith. You have three newcomers in this category. Oh yeah and half of the nominees are from HBO’s Game of Thrones. The closest thing to a “hot new thing” is Unreal, and if pushed I suppose you could make a case for Constance Zimmerman because it’s an inside TV series and it skewers Reality TV and most of the creative types – in particular actors – are down with that. I could very easily see Magge Smith getting the Emmy because it was the last season of Downton Abbey. However, I’d put the bulk of my money on any of the women of Game of Thrones, and because I have to say something here, I’m picking Lena Headey over Emilia Clarke and Maisie Williams. Cersei Lannister is just such a deliciously evil character that I find it hard to bet against the actress who plays her, if only out of fear that the Emmy venue might be swallowed up in wildfire if she doesn’t win. (joking)

Outstanding Lead Actor Comedy

• Anthony Anderson, Black-ish, ABC 5/1 odds *
• Aziz Ansari, Master of None, Netflix 3/1 odds (2)
• Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth, FOX 20/1 odds *
• William H. Macy, Shameless, Showtime 14/1 *
• Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley, HBO, 12/1 odds (3)
• Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent, Amazon, 1/2 odds * (1)

One of the categories where there might possibly be an upset. The HBO factor isn’t as great in comedy as it is in drama, and Black-ish had some much talked about episodes that might be persuasive to some members of the academy. However I think it really comes down to the two streaming series, Jeffrey Tambor in Transparent and Aziz Ansari in Master of None. As I’ve mentioned here, I’ve seen about five minutes of Masters of None before I stopped watching and despite the huge critical buzz, including some from some professional critics that I really like, I haven’t gone back. The rules – and the oddsmakers – say Tambor, but I think I’ll out on a limb here and predict Aziz Ansari will get the upset win.

Outstanding Lead Actress Comedy

• Ellie Kemper, The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Neflix 3/1 odds 
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, HBO * 1/2 odds (1)
• Laurie Metcalfe, Getting On, HBO 20/1 odds (3)
• Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish, ABC 14/1 odds
• Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer, Comedy Central 13/2 odds *
• Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie, Netflix 13/2 odds *

I’m just going to say it – give Julia Louis-Dreyfus the Emmy as she walks down the red carpet. You don’t need to open the envelope except as a formality. It’s not that I don’t think the others are unworthy. I watch Grace and Frankie and I think that Lily Tomlin is brilliant on that show (although I have to give credit her chemisty with Jane Fonda as part of it). It’s just that Julia Louis-Dreyfus nails it on Veep and it’s difficult to beat the incumbent when she’s also quite good. I don’t see anyone on this list who can challenge her.

Outstanding Lead Actor Drama

• Kyle Chandler, Bloodline, Netflix 10/1 to 12/1 odds *
• Rami Malek, Mr Robot, USA 13/8 to 5/4 odds (2)
• Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul, AMC 9/2 to 8/1 odds *
• Matthew Riis, The Americans, FX 2/1 to 8/1 odds FX
• Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan, Showtime 30/1 to 33/1 odds *
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards, Netflix 13/8 to 7/4 odds*

You may have noticed that I recorded the odds differently. That’s because the oddsmakers were all over the place here. Last year’s winner and the winner from several years before were both on shows that ended their runs. There’s no one from an HBO show in the category. The result is that the odds makers can’t agree on a likely winner in this category. They seem to agree that Schreiber and Chandler are outside shots, but Odenkirk ranges from 4.5/1 to 8/1 while Matthew Riis is anywhere from 2/1 to 8/1. For a while some of the oddsmakers were considering Kevin Spacey a lock, but then the odds on Rami Malek kept getting better and better to the point where it was either favourite or co-favourite with Spacey. Given that Mr. Robot is “the hot new thing” and has received a lot of buzz from the critics, I’m giving the edge to Rami Malek.

Outstanding Lead Actress Drama

• Claire Danes, Homeland, Showtime * 5/1 odds (1a)
• Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder, ABC 3/2 odds * (1)
• Taraji P. Henson, Empire, FOX 12/1 odds *
• Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black, BBC America 20/1 odds * (4)
• Kerry Russell, The Americans, FX 4/1 odds 
• Robin Wright, House of Cards, Netflix 7/4 odds *

This is a category that the oddsmakers are getting wrong. They have made Robin Wright the odds on favourite to win this category while almost totally ignoring last season’s winner Viola Davis. The Rules seem to put Davis in a strong position. There is no HBO series in the mix here, and while there are two basic cable series and a Showtime series represented – and the star of the Showtime series, Claire Danes has won in the past – none of them qualify in the “hot new thing” category. Worst of all for Tatiana Maslany (for whom I have a sentimental rooting interest in; she’s from Saskatchewan originally – even if it is Regina) she triggers the dreaded Rule 4 by being in a science fiction series. She has no more chance of winning than an actor from a CW show has of getting nominated. As strong as Robin Wright’s performance apparently is (I don’t watch the show), she’s been nominated twice before and hasn’t delivered. Unless the voting changes alter things significantly I don’t see her getting it this time either.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Black-ish, ABC 14/1 odds
• Master of None, Netflix 6/1 odds (2)
• Modern Family, ABC 20/1 odds* (1a)
• Silicon Valley, HBO 30/1 odds * (3)
• Transparent, Amazon 10/1 odds *
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Netflix 10/1 odds *
• Veep, HBO 1/3 odds * (1)

I’ve seen a certain amount of speculation that Black-ish could be a contender based on the episode they submitted, but looking at things realistically the most likely outcome is yet another win for Veep. And while many may consider Black-ish to be a challenger, my longshot in this category is this season’s “hot new thing” Master of None. I don’t think it will win, but I do think it is the show most likely to win if Veep doesn’t.

Outstanding Drama Series

• The Americans, FX 10/1 odds
• Better Call Saul, AMC 40/1 odds *
• Downton Abbey, PBS 30/1 odds* (1a)
• Game of Thrones, HBO 1/3 odds * (1, 3)
• Homeland, Showtime 14/1 odds * (1a)
• House of Cards, Netflix 20/1 odds *
• Mr. Robot, AMC 3/1 odds (2)

There are three recent winners in this category, one of which is a sentimental favourite because it’s the show’s last season. Sometimes that’s enough to get a show like Downton Abbey a win just as a recognition of how good and beloved the show was. It doesn’t always work out that way of course. Some shows that are acknowledged as being truly great have gone their entire runs with plenty of nominations but no wins. And let’s not even talk about shows like Battlestar Galactica that don’t even get a nomination for anything. I don’t think Downton Abbey will pull it out this time around simely because I can’t see it beating Game of Thrones, which has intrigue, blood, beautiful naked people, and dragons (and also a superlative cast, high production values and a great story of course). I at least think better of Downton Abbey’s chances than the odds makers who made it at 30/1 longshot. Mr. Robot get’s my nod for having a distinct chance of breaking through as a “hot new thing” but that would have been more likely to pay off in a year without Game of Thrones.

A couple of final parting shots on categories that I don’t cover largely because The Rules don’t apply. Outstanding Variety Talk Show is going to be interesting for the first time in years because The Colbert Report and The Daily Show with Jon Stewart aren’t around to be nominated any more. Interestingly The Late Show with Stephen Colbert was the only one of the three 11:30 p.m. talk shows not to be nominated. Given America’s taste for political humour in this category I expect the Emmy to go to Last Week Tonight with John Oliver.

As to the Outstanding Limited Series, it and the Television Movie category are the one area where the Emmys are most similar to the Oscars. In most cases a limited series is just that; it plays out over a number of episodes in a single season and generally doesn’t reappear over and over again, although shows like Fargo and American Crime contradict this notion. In this category if you don’t see the nominated shows, you really have to look for the show that has the most buzz. If/when you find it you will also find that it tends to monopolize the awards in all of the subsidiary categories for Limited Series and Television Movies. Based on everything I’ve heard, expect a lot of awards for the cast writers and directors of The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story before its eventual coronation.

The cheap bastards Television Academy awards the Emmys Sunday night on ABC (charging people to keep an award they’ve “won” – it sounds like something Donald Trump would think up).

2015 Emmy Predictions

I’m going to try to predict this year’s Emmy awards “scientifically” using four basic rules. Two of the rules are Positive, one is Negative, and one is what I guess you could call Neutral or Preferential. There’s also a fifth rule that’s not yet proven. These predictions are based on things I’ve observed about the Emmys from long before I started this Blog and even before I had the Internet.

So what are these rules? They’re actually pretty simple:

Rule 1: Winners win….until you know, they don’t.
The Emmys are unique among entertainment awards shows in that the same show or people can win year after year. The equivalent at the Oscars would be for last year’s Best Picture winner to win again this year. It doesn’t happen at the Tonys, the Grammys or the Oscars, just the Emmys and any other awards show that touches on TV. And the Emmys tend to give awards to previous season’s winners.

Rule 2: The “Hot New Thing” can overturn previous season’s winners, but it’s the academy that decide what the hot new thing is.
Funny thing about the TV awards. The people who choose the nominees and who vote for the winners don’t actually watch a hell of a lot of TV. TV critics (the pros) watch a lot of TV but the people at the TV academy are too busy working making TV shows to actually watch TV shows on a regular basis. What they know about what’s hot and what’s not is generally based on ratings and buzz and whatever  they decide is “quality” TV this year.

Rule 3: Premium cable trumps basic cable which trumps broadcast TV.
And by premium cable I mean HBO. This year HBO had 40 nominations, while Showtime had nine and Cinemax (!) had one. Those 40 nominations for HBO were greater than ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC combined although when you factor PBS into the mix it is greater. We don’t know yet were streaming video factors into this except to say that while they get more nominations than The CW, Amazon and Netflix have had very limited success.

Rule 4: Fantasy and Science Fiction don’t win… unless they come from HBO.
In fact Fantasy and Science Fiction shows almost never get nominations unless they’re on HBO. Battlestar Galactica may have been one of the best shows on all of TV during its run but never earned a Primetime Emmy nomination. Creative Arts Emmys sure, but not Emmy’s from Writing, Directing or Acting, let alone Outstanding Drama Series which are the categories being awarded on Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the series and acting categories and apply the rules. I’ll put the rule number that applies to the person or show beside their name.

Outstanding Supporting Actor Comedy

• Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, FOX (2)
• Titus Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Netflix (2)
• Ty Burrell, Modern Family, ABC (1)
• Adam Driver, Girls, HBO (3)
• Tony Hale, Veep, HBO (1, 3)
• Keegan-Michael Key, Key and Peele, Comedy Central

 Based on this I think it will come down to a battle between the only two actors who have won before, with the edge going to Tony Hale of Veep, who was upset in the voting last year.

Outstanding Supporting Actress Comedy

• Mayim Bialik, Big Bang Theory, CBS
• Julie Bowen, Modern Family, ABC (1)
• Anna Chlumsky, Veep, HBO (3)
• Gaby Hoffman, Transparent, Amazon (2)
• Allison Janney, Mom, CBS (1)
• Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Netflix (2)
• Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live, NBC
• Niecy Nash, Getting On, HBO (3)

 This looks tighter than it probably is. I think that Allison Janney will probably win her second straight Emmy because Bowen’s position as a previous winner goes back three years.I’m not sure how “hot” and “new” Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and Transparent are. Plus, the fact is that Janney’s role is really closer to being a Lead Actress role, and that always get the attention of the Academy.

Outstanding Supporting Actor Drama

• Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul, AMC (2)
• Jim Carter, Downton Abbey, PBS
• Alan Cumming, The Good Wife, CBS
• Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones, HBO (1,3,4)
• Michael Kelly, House of Cards, Netflix
• Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline, Netflix

I think it comes down to Peter Dinklage and Jonathon Banks. This is another weird one. Dinklage is the only actor to win for a Science Fiction-Fantasy show in years, because it was on HBO (and he is an amazing actor), but Jonathon Banks has been nominated in the past for playing this character and yet he is playing the character in a “Hot New show.” I think give this category to Jonathon Banks.

Outstanding Supporting Actress Drama

• Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black, Netflix
• Christine Baranski, The Good Wife, CBS
• Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones, HBO (3, 4)
• Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey, PBS
• Lena Headey, Game of Thrones, HBO (3, 4)
• Christina Hendricks, Mad Men, AMC

This is a tough category because the rules really don’t apply. To be sure you have two actresses form an HBO show, but it’s a Fantasy series. None of the actors have won in this category in the last five Emmy shows although four of the six were nominated last year and two of the six were nominated each of the past five Emmys (Baransky and Hendricks). So we have to revert to the WAG Techniques (Wild Ass Guess). As much as I would like to see Christina Hendricks win, because I don’t think she’s ever likely to get a role as good as Joan Harris for a long long time, I am going to put my metaphorical money on Uzo Aduba.

Outstanding Lead Actor Comedy

• Anthony Anderson, Black-ish, ABC (2)
• Don Cheadle, House of Lies, Showtime (3)
• Louis C.K., Louie, FX (3)
• Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth, Fox (2)
• Matt LeBlanc, Episodes, Showtime (3)
• William H. Macy, Shameless, Showtime (3)
• Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent, Amazon (2)

Will Forte and Anthony Anderson are on “Hot New Shows” but I would question just how “Hot” or they really are. Jeffrey Tambor benefits from being on one of the most talked about shows of the 2014-15 season, and the fact that the guy who won four of the past five years, Jim Parsons, wasn’t nominated this time around. Tambor’s my pick here…. unless voters write in Parson’s name.

Outstanding Lead Actress Comedy

• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie, Showtime (1,3)
• Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback, HBO (3)
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, HBO (1,3)
• Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation, NBC
• Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer, Comedy Central (2)
• Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie, Netflix

I’d be shocked if Julia Louis Dreyfus doesn’t take this one. She’s won the past three seasons which, coincidentally, is as long as her show has been on the air. She’s on premium cable, and while Amy Schumer has undeniable talent and has been setting the comedy world on fire, I just don’t think she can beat Dreyfus.

Outstanding Lead Actor Drama

• Kyle Chandler, Bloodline, Netflix
• Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom, HBO (1, 3)
• Jon Hamm, Mad Men, AMC
• Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul, AMC (2)
• Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan, Showtime (3)
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards, Netflix

My heart wants to say John Hamm will get his turn now that Bryan Cranston has departed the scene, but the rules are against him. While I realize that Jeff Daniels scored a huge upset over Cranston two years ago by beating him in this category, and is on an HBO show, I’ll give this one to Bob Odenkirk for playing an old Breaking Bad supporting character elevated to the lead on the “Hot New” Better Call Saul.

Outstanding Lead Actress Drama

• Claire Danes, Homeland, Showtime (1, 3) 
• Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder, ABC (2)
• Taraji P. Henson, Empire, Fox (2)
• Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black, BBC America (4)
• Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men, AMC
• Robin Wright, House of Cards, Netflix

Two of the hottest new shows of the year face off in this category where the seemingly perpetual winner, Julianna Margulies, wasn’t nominated this time. Claire Danes is a two time winner so she’s a definite prospect, but there are those who think her show has slipped into absurdity. I personally think it comes down to Viola Davis vs. Taraji P. Henson. I’m going to reluctantly come down on the side of Viola Davis (reluctantly because I really don’t like the character or the show) simply because from what I’ve seen Taraji P. Henson’s character, Cookie Lyon, seems to be way over the top. Of course I wouldn’t be surprised if Henson won either.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Louie, FX
• Modern Family, ABC (1)
• Parks and Recreation, NBC
• Silicon Valley, HBO (3)
• Transparent, Amazon (2)
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Netflix
• Veep, HBO (3)

In the past five years Modern Family has won this category five times. It’s probably the safe call to say that it will make it six in a row, but all streaks have to come to an end eventually (don’t they?) and I can definitely see Transparent knocking he wheels off of the Modern Family juggernaut, because I think it’s time.

Outstanding Drama Series

• Better Call Saul, AMC (2)
• Downton Abbey, PBS
• Game of Thrones, HBO (3, 4)
• Homeland, Showtime (1, 3)
• House of Cards, Netflix
• Mad Men, AMC (1)
• Orange Is the New Black, Netflix

Breaking Bad not being on the list opens things up a lot. Homeland and Mad Men have both won in this category in the past but neither show was at its best this past season and the same can be said of non-winner House of Cards. Game of Thrones has the “Fantasy” label attached. That leaves us with Downton Abbey, Orange Is the New Black, and Better Call Saul. Because Better Call Saul wins the “Hot New Show” description, and I’m not sure the TV Academy has quite wrapped its collective heads around Netflix, I’ll make that my choice in this category.

The 67th Annual Emmy Awards will be seen Sunday, September 20 on FOX. Watch this space to see how well I and the “rules” I came up with do.

Update: The rules had a .600 Batting Average which is really rather good, although I will have to tinker with them more for next year. Details to follow.

Poll Results-Outstanding Drama Series

Last of our Emmy polls, and this one had a really small turnout. That May very well have been because I was late in putting up the announcement. I really thought I had put it up when I finished typing it up, but I was tired that night.

 

Anyway, there were five votes cast. Boardwalk Empire, Game Of Thrones, and Mad Men received no votes. Breaking Bad received one vote (20%). Tied for the win are Downton Abbey and Homeland with two votes each (40%).

 

The low voter turnout for this one was a surprise for me, but beyond that I’m still trying to process the votes that were cast in my own mind. The two HBO shows in the list didn’t get any votes. Given the focus of this blog that’s not overly surprising. And if what I’ve heard about Mad Men having an off season is correct then that one also seems logical; great performances – and no one is disputing the performances turned in by the Mad Men cast, particularly Christina Hendricks – do not necessarily add up to a great whole.

 

Which leaves us with the shows that received votes.I haven’t seen any of the three shows that got votes but I’ve heard a lot of critical support for all three. Breaking Bad is always a contender and in its penultimate season (which in AMC terms means it will be around for two more Emmy cycles) it apparently delivered a heavy dramatic punch. I certainly understand the love for Homeland which seems to me to have boosted the standard for the year (and in my opinion is the nominee most likely to dethrone Mad Men as Outstanding Drama Series). But I don’t get the adoration for Downton Abbey. Okay, I know it’s a BBC produced “family saga” of the sort that the Emmys have loved since The Forsythe Saga about 40 years ago (40 years? Suddenly I feel downright elderly because I watched and enjoyed The Forsythe Saga when it was on CBC; I even tried reading the books). But is it as good as the other shows in the category or is it the best show that the Emmy voters could find on Broadcast TV? I’m just not sure.

 

The new polls for the new shows most likely to be cancelled quickest will be up later today, after I go form my optometrist appointment.

New Poll-Outstanding Drama Series

Yeah, that took a bit longer than I expected. So the deadline will be pushed later as well.

For the final time this Emmy season, please vote for the series that you believe should win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series. Please feel free to explain why you feel the way that you do by posting a comment under this topic. It will make a change from dealing with Comment Spam.

Deadline for this poll is 12:01 a.m. on September 14th.

Poll Results-Outstanding Comedy Series

This poll had one of the most unexpected, and I dare say unusual results I’ve seen in the time that I’ve been doing these polls.

Eight votes were cast. Girls and Veep received no votes. Last year’s winner in the actual Emmys, Modern Family, received one vote (13%). Tied with two votes each (25%) were Curb Your Enthusiasm and The Big Bang Theory. But the winner, with three votes (38%) was ….. 30 Rock!?

That was the unexpected part. Here’s the unusual part. If I had run these poll results twenty-four hours earlier, 30 Rock would have been in a tie…with Girls and Veep with no votes. If I had run the poll results eight hours ago, the show would have been in a tie with Curb Your Enthusiasm and The Big Bang Theory. The last three votes received (according to the email sent by the software that I use to do the polls) were all for 30 Rock, and all came in in a twelve hour period – two of them at the same time! And this is not the first poll this has happened in.

Now not to throw cold water on the people who voted in my poll, but 30 Rock isn’t going to win as Outstanding Comedy Series, nor, in my not so humble opinion should it win as Outstanding Comedy Series. A great comedy series? Undoubtedly. Deserving of being nominated? Indubitably. But the Outstanding Comedy Series of the 2011-12 season? No.

Now admittedly – because I admit it just about every time I write about comedy series – I don’t watch a lot of the comedies on TV. Of the nominees I only watch The Big Bang Theory on a regular basis and I usually manage to catch about an episode a year of Modern Family. But everything that I’ve heard tells me that 30 Rock‘s best days are behind it (though there is something inspired about having Margaret Cho not only play Kim Jong-il but bringing her back after the real Kim Jong-il died). Frankly I don’t know who should win, although I will be cheering for The Big Bang Theory on Emmy night. Maybe Todd Mason is right in the comment he wrote for the blog: “This is the kind of spavined list I expect from awards-show folks, and they don't disappoint...though I haven't yet looked up the Emmy that a more deserving candidate, CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL, is up for.” Oh well, at least it gave me an excuse for running a picture of Tina Fey.

The next – and final – Emmy post of this season will be up in a few hours.

New Poll–Outstanding Comedy Series

First things first: I’ve decided not to do the “Outstanding Reality-Competition” category this year. There are two basic reasons for this. First and foremost, I want to start the “Which show will be cancelled the quickest?” polls before most of the new shows debut and I’d be pushing it if I ran the Reality-Competition poll. I need better time management for this. Second, the Reality Competition category has basically been dominated by The Amazing Race… everywhere except here. It sort of takes the sport out of it. So let’s skip the category this year.

 

As usual, the rules are simple. Vote for the series that you think should win the Emmy as Outstanding Comedy Series, and if you feel the urge to comment on the nominees or the poll, feel free to do so right here.

 

Deadline is Tuesday September 4th at around noon(ish).

Poll Results–Outstanding Actor In A Drama

This one is probably going to have more pictures than text. Nine votes were cast and we have a three way tie. Hugh Bonneville, Steve Buscemi and Michael C. Hall all received no votes. Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm and Damien Lewis all received three votes each (33%).

I’m pretty sure that the winner again this year will be Bryan Cranston for playing Walter White on Breaking Bad. And, from a lot of what I’m hearing – I don’t watch Breaking Bad, by choice – Cranston turns in another amazing performance this year as the former high school Chemistry teacher who started out “just” cooking meth to build up a nest egg for his family, but has increasingly become darker and more evil. The Walter White who was seen at the start of the series is not the Walter White we are seeing today, and that sort of change and growth in a character reflects well on the actor who portrays the character (though it hasn’t even gotten an Emmy nod for Anna Torv *pout*).

The dominance of Bryan Cranston in this category has had a negative effect on Jon Hamm’s chances of winning an Emmy for playing Don Draper in Mad Men. In three of the four previous years in which he has been nominated for the Outstanding Actor in a Drama Emmy he has gone head to head with Cranston and a performance that – in most years – would have earned him the Emmy has wound up as the runner-up (one would surmise). And the fact is that it would be hard to convince a lot of people that the wrong decision had been made; that Hamm’s performance was in fact better than Cranston’s. Last year’s Emmy’s, when Breaking Bad wasn’t eligible for the awards, may have been Hamm’s best chance for the Emmy and he lost to Kyle Chandler for Friday Night Lights. Now that is one you can argue about, considering that Hamm submitted a strong episode – The Suitcase – while I think it could be argued that Chandler’s award was as much a cumulative award for five years of outstanding performances as for the episode submitted. But Cranston’s back, and it may be that Jon Hamm’s chance to get an Emmy for the role of Don Draper has passed.

The dark horse in this race is probably Damien Lewis for playing Nicholas Brody in Homeland. A caveat here is that I’ve always enjoyed watching Lewis in just about everything I’ve seen him in, including the mini-series Band Of Brothers, where he played Major Dick Winters, and the criminally underrated Life where he played Charlie Crews. I haven’t seen Homeland, but everything I’ve heard about the show, and the characters in it – those played by Lewis and his co-star Claire Danes – are complex and not always what they seem, with layers over top of layers. I would love to see Damien Lewis win in this category, but I’m afraid that it’s not to be.

New poll up in a bit.

New Poll–Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama

As usual, please vote for the actor you feel should win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama rather than for the one you believe will win if they aren’t one and the same. And, again as usual feel free to comment on why you feel they should win in the category – or why someone else shouldn’t. Do NOT feel free to include an ad for Comcast’s “The Hopper” DVR service. I’ve been getting a number of those and they go right to the Spam Bucket.

Deadline for this poll is Sunday August 26 at around noon(ish). By which time I will hopefully figure out what the next poll will be.

Poll Results–Outstanding Actress In A Drama

First a couple of housekeeping things. I’ve been meaning to get the next episode of the first season of The Amazing Race finished but I’ve been having some time management issues in terms of finding the time to do the work to finish it up. sometime this weekend…I hope. This got a bit messed up when I added a second Hard Drive to my computer and needed to move a bunch of files to it. Also, I haven’t decided yet but I might cut the Reality-Competition Poll and end the rest of my Emmy Polling nine days early so I can do the Cancellation Polls that proved so popular last year. No decision yet though.

And now on to the poll results. There were nine votes cast, the most in this polling cycle. Glenn Close (Damages), Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), Elizabeth Moss (Mad Men) and “None of the Above” received no votes (and I think I’ll drop None of the Above from future categories). Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law) had one vote (11% of votes cast), and Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife) had three votes (33%). But the winner was Claire Danes (Homeland) with five votes (56%). What’s interesting to me is that all of the votes for Margulies came in in the past three or four days, while the single vote for Kathy Bates was the first vote received. Not sure what, if anything, that means but I found it curious.

For myself, I might have used the “None of the Above” option to deliver a protest vote on behalf of Anna Torv because I love her performance in Fringe (and I admit, I’m a bit smitten with her), but on the whole I think the poll got both the person who will win and the person who should win right when you voted for Claire Danes. I haven’t seen the show, but everything I’ve read indicates that the part of Carrie Mathison in Homeland is an extremely complex one and Danes throws herself into the part. Margulies was last year’s winner, and a deserving one, but I just think that between the subject matter and the intensity of the role, Danes has a part that should win her the Emmy. And as much as I’d like to see Elizabeth Moss (or Anna Torv) win an Emmy, this is just Claire Danes’s year.

New poll up shortly.

New Poll-Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama

I’m really doing all of this the night before deadline in hopes that I can get everything posted before I head out for the casino. If you’re reading this before noon on August 8th I succeeded, if it didn’t get posted until the afternoon I failed.

Just to review the rules, simply vote for the actress you think should win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama; not who you think will win but who you think should win. If you vote for “None of the Above” or simply want to express why you think the person you voted for is the most deserving candidate to be the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama, post them here. I’ve also included a link below the Poll to make it a bit easier once I post my next Amazing Race recap. I’ll try to run the comments with the next set of results.

Deadline for this poll will be August 17tha at around Noon…ish.

Poll Results-Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy

Well at least I know where I stand with this week’s single poll results. No guessing about how many of the voters thought that they were voting for who should win even though the poll sais who would win.

And I certainly know where I – or rather those of you who voted – stand on who should win in this category. And maybe even who you think will win. There were seven votes cast. The following received no votes: Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm), Don Cheadle (House of Lies), Alec Baldwin (30 Rock), Jon Cryer (Two And A Half Men), and None of the Above. Louie CK (Louie) received one vote (14%). But the overwhelming winner, with six votes (86%) was last years winner of both the Emmy and this poll, Jim Parsons (Big Bang Theory).

From my perspective this is a good choice and pretty much the result I was expecting. Of the shows listed here I I have access to either three or four (I’m not sure if Curb Your Enthusiasm is available on a cable channel I receive) of the nominees. I know that I’ve seen moments of two of them – 30 Rock and Two And A Half Men – but there’s only one that I watch and that is Big Bang Theory. And it needs to be said that a huge reason why I watch the Big Bang Theory is because of Jim Parsons. Granted the show has a nice ensemble cast around it and most of the characters elicit some laughter from me, the one who gets me every time is parsons and his character of Doctor Sheldon Cooper. I love the character’s quirks, his enthusiasms, and most of all when one or more of the other characters one ups him.

I don’t know enough about the other performances, and in particular the performances in the premium cable shows to really offer an opinion. I know that both Alec Baldwin and Jon Cryer have won Emmys in the past – Cryer’s came as a total surprise to everyone, probably including both Alec Baldwin and Cryer’s co-star Charlie Sheen. I also know that Larry David has been nominated five times since 2002 and not won an Emmy. I don’t know much about House of Lies, but I do know some of Don Cheadle’s work, both in comedies and dramas, and I know he’s a very strong actor. As for Louie CK, I know virtually nothing about him but professional critics whose work I respect speak highly of him and the show. I just know the enjoyment I get out of watching Jim Parsons in every episode of Big Bang Theory.

New Poll up shortly…or maybe not since I’m heading out to the casino for a few hours.

New Poll–Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy

Right here we are with the next Emmy Poll singular. The rules are deceptively simple (like me). Just cast your vote for the Actor who you think should win the Emmy as Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy. If you choose to vote “None of the above” I would appreciate it if you would add a comment in this post saying who you think should win the Emmy. And of course feel free to comment on why you think the person you pick should win in this category, or about the quality of the nominees in this category, or even to bitch about why you think that putting up this poll is a total and complete waste of time when there are so many more vital and important issues in the world than who will win an Emmy.

No kidding, I had someone drop a comment just like that a few years ago when I ran one of these polls. My response was that in the grand scheme of things the Emmys aren’t that important, but that in the world of American TV they are important, and since this is a blog about American TV that meant that they had to be reported on in the blog.

Anyway, the deadline for this poll and the release of the next one is August 8th at around noonish.

Poll Results–Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy

Housekeeping detail to take care of first. The two poll idea is officially scrapped. I set up two polls this year, one for who people thought would win the Emmy in the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy category and the other for who people thought should win in the category. I expected some discrepancy between the two polls and boy did I get it. Until early this morning only one of the two polls received any votes beyond a test by me to make sure it was running properly. People only seemed to respond to the “who will win…” poll which was the uppermost of the two, not the “who should win…” poll. But of course what I want to find out is “who should win…” so from here on in I’ll only be running a single poll. My other change this year – adding “none of the above” and including a link to a post where you can say who you think should win instead in the comments section – will continue for now.

The results in the one poll that had multiple voters were quite ambiguous causing me to wonder if four of the five people who actually voted did indeed cast their votes for who should win. Lena Dunham from Girls, Edie Falco from Nurse Jackie, and Tina Fey from 30 Rock received no votes. Zooey Deschanel (The New Girl), Amy Poehler (Parks & Recreation) and Julia Louis Dreyfuss (Veep) each received one vote of the five cast or 20% each. But the winner in this category was Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly) who got two votes (40%).

As I mentioned, two votes were cast in the “who should win…” poll but one of those – a “None of the above” – was cast by me as a test. The other vote was cast early this morning (I know this because my polling software sends me a notification for each vote cast). That one vote went to Amy Poehler, so by default she wins this poll with 100% of the actual vote.

I honestly don’t have an opinion. None of Nurse Jackie, Girls, and Veep are available on channels that I get, and given my often stated general ambivalence to comedy it will come as no surprise that I haven’t watched episodes of any of the shows that are available on my cable service – or at least not this season. So as far as who deserves to win, I can honestly say I have no idea, and there are too many conflicting factors – four previous winners in the category, including the person who won last year; three women on cable shows; one member of “TV royalty” (a multiple winner for a much beloved classic show); one star on a show with a certain amount of controversy; a well liked newcomer on broadcast TV – to be able to pinpoint an obvious choice for who will win the Emmy. As far as I’m concerned, this is a wide open category.

New poll (singular) up in shortly.

New Polls–Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy

I’ve decided to shake my Emmy polls up a bit this year. It’s fairly simple: instead of one poll on who should win the Emmy in the various categories I’ll be posting two polls each polling period, one for whoyou think should win and one for who you think will win. In addition, in the Who should win polls I am adding an additional choice.”None of the above” in case you think that the none of the people nominated in the category deserves to win the Emmy. If you vote “None of the above” however, I want you to specify who you think deserves to win more in the comment section of this post.

Beyond that I welcome any comments on these polls and about why you think the person you voted for in either poll either will win or deserves to win. Deadline for the first pair of polls is July 30th at Noon (approximately).

2011-12 Emmy Award Nominations

It’s that time of the year again when the annoncement of the Emmy Award nominations signal the start of the run-up to the new TV season. Where has the summer gone. Based on the nominations this has been the worst season ever for broadcast network series – which of course is largely what I write about. Even their grip on comedies is slipping. while the biggest broadcast nomination-getter in the dramatic categories was PBS’s Downton Abbey, a series that had been relegated to the Miniseries and Movies category last year. There are some surprises – like the fact that Harry’s Law got several nominations despite being dumped by NBC – and more than a few snubs including one that is totally inexplicable. I’ll be working out my Emmy Polls shortly (I’m thinking of shaking things up there a little) but for now, here are the nominees and my thoughts on what made it and what didn’t.

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Outstanding Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire – HBO
Breaking Bad – AMC
Downton Abbey – PBS
Game Of Thrones – HBO
Homeland – Showtime
Mad Men – AMC

The only show that is on the list that is seen on Broadcast TV is Downton Abbey and that was made in the UK. And the thing is that I don’t blame the Academy. Broadcast TV hasn’t consistently produced programming that deserves an Emmy nomination since The West Wing and NYPD Blue went off the air. I think part of that – though how big a part I don’t really know – is due to the combination of the FCC’s heavy handed regulation and groups like the PTC. Of course a big part of it is the “big tent” philosophy of the broadcast networks who are trying to satisfy the largest possible audience to sell the biggest amount of advertising. No one wants to try anything edgy, either out of fear of the FCC, the pressure groups or just out of plain fear of failure. A show like Homeland could be put on a broadcast network – minus the nudity and any bad language of course – but would people in the volumes that the broadcast networks want to get watch the show? Probably not.
Egregious Omission: Probably Sons of Anarchy which gets no love at all, maybe Revenge or Awake, though I’m really not feeling it for either of those. The Good Wife got a nomination last year too so why not this year. And as always Fringe.

Outstanding Comedy Series
Big Bang Theory – CBS
Curb Your Enthusiasm – HBO
Girls – HBO
Modern Family – ABC
30 Rock – NBC
Veep – HBO

Last year there were no nominations for shows on cable networks in the Comedy Series category and this year there are three. But they’re all from HBO which doesn’t prove that cable is doing comedy better but rather (I think) that HBO is in a cycle where they’re doing comedies. They do seem to go in cycles. Given all of the backlash I’ve heard about Girls (and because I’m not shelling out $14 plus a month to get HBO Canada, the backlash is all I know about this show) and because Curb Your Enthusiasm is an older show, I’m going to say that Veep is their only real shot at the Emmy. I also happen to think it is coming down to a two horse race again between Modern Family and The Big Bang Theory. Past winners edge to Modern Family.
Egregious Omission: The various entertainment websites are mentioning shows like Louie, and Community but what about that other critical darling (which I’ve never gotten around to seeing – I’m hanging my head in shame even as I type this) The New Girl on FOX with the adorkable Zooey Deschanel (loved her in that iPhone commercial).

Outstanding Reality-Competition Series
The Amazing Race – CBS
Dancing With The Stars – ABC
Project Runway – Lifetime
So You Think You Can Dance – FOX
Top Chef – Bravo
The Voice – NBC

The usual suspects with The Voice substituting for American Idol. Guess what show I think is going to win? And yeah, that was a rhetorical questions since I hope you’ve all been reading my summer recaps.
Egregious Omission: As usual Survivor doesn’t even get a nomination, and while I wasn’t really impressed with either of last year’s versions it is something that bothers me. I think there’s some deeper reasoning here. Also missing are American Idol and The X-Factor of course but I suppose the voters thought that the gimmick on The Voice was better than the established show and it’s clone.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire – HBO
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad – AMC
Michael C. Hall, Dexter – Showtime
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey – PBS
Damien Lewis, Homeland – Showtime
Jon Hamm, Mad Men – AMC

Kyle Chandler won last year for Friday Night Lights but of course that show is no longer on the air. The field isn’t as wide open as one might think since Bryan Cranston is back in the mix after Breaking Bad’s hiatus last year. Which may be bad for Jon Hamm; if he can’t win with Bryan Cranston out of the equation how can he win with him in. I suspect that Damien Lewis has an outside chance, and maybe even a better chance than Hamm this time around, But Cranston is likely to take it again.
Egregious Omission: Hugh Laurie wasn’t nominated for the final season of House. Come on; Steven Carrell at least got a farewell kiss even if he didn’t get an Emmy. And maybe Kelsey Grammer for Boss unless the Academy only sees him as Dr. Fraser Crane.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama
Glenn Close, Damages – DirecTv
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey – PBS
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS)
Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law – NBC
Claire Danes, Homeland – Showtime
Elizabeth Moss, Mad Men – AMC

Even though Margulies won last year, she’s not a lock for this season, or even the favourite. That expectation would go to Claire Danes for her extremely complex role as mentally disturbed agent Carrie Mathison in the Showtime series Homeland. Oh, and joy of joys, Mariska Hargitay wasn’t nominated!
Egregious Omission: As always Anna Torv, as Olivia Dunham (both versions) in Fringe. Hate to say it, but Fringe will be remembered when something like Harry’s Law is long forgotten. Kyra Sedgwick and Emmy Rossum are also not on the list. I suppose the voters figured that Sedgwick’s 2010 Emmy victory was enough. And of course there’s the regular snub of Katey Segal from Sons of Anarchy.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory – CBS
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm – HBO
Don Cheadle, House Of Lies – Showtime
Louie C.K., Louie – FX
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock – NBC
John Cryer, Two And A Half Men – CBS

No brainer in who I think is going to win. Jim Parsons never fails to get me howling with laughter. Certainly the best of the OTA network nominees, and they’re the only ones I get a chance to see.
Egregious Omission: Well if you’re going to throw a nomination to Jon Cryer, shouldn’t Ashton Kutcher also get one? I mean just on general principle? Or principal since he’s one of the principal players on the show?

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy
Lena Dunham, Girls – HBO
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly – CBS
Zooey Deschanel, The New Girl – FOX
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie – Showtime
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation – NBC
Tina Fey, 30 Rock – NBC
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep – HBO

Seven people in this category means that the voting was probably close because as I understand the TV Academy rules it is six people per category unless the difference between the sixth and seventh highest vote getters is within a certain percentage. What this means for the category I don’t know, but I think they’ve got a great list here. We’ll be seeing if McCarthy’s win last year was due in part to her role in Bridesmaids, which did after all get her an Oscar Nomination. Or will Edie Falco rebound after losing last year? Or even Tina Fey? If I’m guessing though for someone other than McCarthy, I’d say that Julia Louis-Dreyfus may have the good shot because the Emmy voters love their former honourees coming back in new roles. And of  course the new “flavour of the month” the adorkable Zooey Deschanel.
Egregious Ommission: Remember when Laura Linney got a nomination in this category last year for The Big C? Well she didn’t this year.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad – AMC
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad – AMC
Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey – PBS
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey – PBS
Peter Dinklage, Game Of Thrones – HBO
Jared Harris, Mad Men – AMC

Another case where Downton Abbey is the only broadcast show nominated. Not that I think it matters because I’m pretty sure it will come down to last year’s winner Peter Dinlage versus Breaking Bad ’s Aaron Paul, with Jared Harris from Mad Men having an outside shot based on the quality of his last episodes.
Egregious Omission: John Noble of Fringe of course, but we all know that the show will never be nominated for anything ever. John Slattery of Mad Men got drowned in the Downton Abbey-Breaking Bad wave. And there’s Mandy Patinkin for Homeland, but at least with him there might just be a reason in the fact that he has a long history of dropping out of TV shows where he’s created compelling characters. That could have created just a touch of animosity.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad – AMC
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey – PBS
Joan Froggat, Downton Abbey – PBS
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife – CBS
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife – CBS
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men – AMC

Last year’s winner Margo Martindale from Justified was obviously not going to repeat in this category. I personally want to see Christina Hendrick take the Emmy home but I suspect it will go to Downton Abbey’s Maggie Smith because she didn’t win it last year when the show was considered a Miniseries.
Egregious Omission: I guess Jessica Pare from Mad Men. I really can’t think of a great supporting role for a woman on broadcast TV this year. Well except for Pauley Perrete on NCIS. And if you think I’m kidding I’ll have you know that she’s probably the most popular actress on the highest rated series on network TV. That at least deserves a little recognition.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family – ABC
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family – ABC
Ty Burrell, Modern Family – ABC
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family – ABC
Max Greenfield, The New Girl – FOX
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live – NBC

I sometimes get the feeling when dealing with this category that the people at Modern Family sit around and say “now whose turn is it to win for Supporting Actor?” Stonestreet won in 2010 and Burrell won in 2011. Logically it is either Ed O’Neill or Jesse Tyler Ferguson’s turn. I’ll say O’Neill because I basically like him… even when he was doing the remake of Dragnet.
Egregious Omission: They tell me to say Nick Offerman for Parks & Recreation so I will but I don’t watch the show so I can’t speak from experience. I don’t know that much about comedies, particularly those that aren’t on broadcast networks but I like Simon Helberg and Kunal Nayar from Big Bang Theory. Oh, and the guy who plays Han on 2 Broke Girls…..JOKING!

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory – CBS
Katherine Joosten, Desperate Housewives – ABC
Julie Bowen, Modern Family – ABC
Sophia Vergara, Modern Family – ABC
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie – Showtime
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live – NBC

Either of the two actresses from Modern Family are the obvious front-runners in this category and they might give it to Vergara because Bowen won it last year; that is if you believe that the Emmy voters sometimes switch off between actors in shows, and we have seen that in the Supporting Actor in a Comedy category in the past few years. My personal preference would be for Mayim Bialik in The Big Bang Theory, who is the second funniest person on that show after Jim Parsons – I love the way Bialik plays Amy’s homoerotic attachment to Penny. On the other hand I wouldn’t be unhappy if Katherine Joosten won a posthumous Emmy for playing Mrs. McCluskey in Desperate Housewives because even though her screen time this season was smaller this year than in the past it was choice.
Egregious Omissions: I don’t watch enough comedies to come up with a name. But because someone was so insistent about it on the Deadline Hollywood comments section – to the point of claiming that the only candidate who was a “legitimate” Supporting Actress was Sophia Vergara – Kristen Bell from House Of Lies. For the record I think he’s full of crap.

Outstanding Reality or Reality-Competition Host
Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race – CBS
Ryan Seacrest, American Idol – FOX
Betty White, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers – NBC
Tom Bergeron, Dancing With The Stars – ABC
Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance – FOX
Egregious Omission: Jeff Probst, Survivor. Look, this is Jeff F’ing Probst you’re dissing. The man has won this category every time it has been available. He’s the standard by which the other reality hosts are measured against and usually found wanting. Personally I think only Bergeron and Keoghan measure up to him. And besides the fact that virtually every other category has six nominees and this one only has five, look who is replacing him: Betty White. And she’s nominated for a show which is basically Ashton Kutcher’s old series Punk’d using seniors to pull the practical jokes. Is that justice? Is that sanity?

Okay with Probst out of the way (unjustly) I think the category really comes down to Keoghan and Bergeron. I don’t like Seacrest and I think that while both he and Bergeron usually work live Bergeron has the tougher job…and not just because he has to work with Brooke Burke-Charvet. He’s had to deal with wardrobe malfunctions, fainting stars, injured stars, getting smacked on the butt, and Bruno Tonioli. But I still think  it should go to Phil Keoghan simply because he has the toughest job of any of these hosts. He is essentially doing everything that the contestants on The Amazing Race are doing except for most of the challenges. He has to get to destinations before the racers to do stand-up explanations of their tasks, he has to make it to the mat before they arrive and wait for them as they arrive and throughout it all he has to look fresh and lively. When Probst isn’t on camera he’s back at base camp kicking back with a beer. When Keoghan isn’t on camera he’s racing to stay ahead of the contestants, and according to him he doesn’t always succeed..

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama
Mark Margolis, Breaking Bad – AMC
Dylan Baker, The Good Wife – CBS
Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife – CBS
Jeremy Davies, Justified – FX
Ben Feldman, Mad Men – AMC
Jason Ritter, Parenthood – NBC
I don’t know any of these shows well enough to predict a winner.
Egregious Omissions: See above.

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama
Martha Plympton, The Good Wife – CBS
Loretta Devine, Grey’s Anatomy – ABC
Jean Smart, Harry’s Law – NBC
Julia Ormond, Mad Men – AMC
Joan Cusack, Shameless – Showtime
Uma Thurman, Smash – NBC

It’s not often that you see the winner of this category nominated a second time for the same role in the same series. For most of her time on the Grey’s Anatomy Devine would probably have been categorized as a Supporting Actress, but unlike last year when Cloris Leachman was nominated as Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy for a role that she played in every single episode of Raising Hope, Devine’s portrayal of Adele Webber as she sinks deeper and deeper into autism is both a true acting tour de force and a true guest starring role. In what I consider to be an otherwise very weak field I think she could, and should repeat.
Egregious Omission: None that I can really think of.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy
Michael J. Fox, Curb Your Enthusiasm – HBO
Greg Kinnear, Modern Family – ABC
Bobby Cannavale, Nurse Jackie – Showtime
Jimmy Fallon, Saturday Night Live – NBC
Will Arnett, 30 Rock – NBC
John Hamm, 30 Rock – NBC

I think the Emmy should go to John Hamm because it seems obvious that there is no way in Hell that he is going to win an Emmy as Outstanding Actor In Drama even though he damned well deserves it.
Egregious Omission: Nothing I can think of.

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy
Dot-Marie Jones, Glee – FOX
Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live – NBC
Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live – NBC
Elizabeth Banks, 30 Rock – NBC
Margaret Cho, 30 Rock – NBC
Kathy Bates, Two And A Half Men – CBS

It will probably go to Rudolph or McCarthy, but you’ve got to admit that Kathy Bates as Charlie Harper has to be one of the two great ideas of the TV season. And if Margaret Cho playing Kim Jung-Il in any way shortened the life of Beloved Leader Kim Jung-Il, well that alone is deserving of an Emmy.
Egregious Omissions: Nothing I can think of.

The 64th Emmy Awards will air on September 23rd on ABC.

It’s A Wonderful(?) Night For Emmy

There are a lot of adjectives to describe the 2011 Emmy broadcast; controlled, planned, anal.

Boring. 

Most of all boring. And I think it was boring because it was so controlled planned and precise. There were no obvious moments when comedy bits were dumped because the show was running overtime, The show seemed as well timed out as a Japanese train schedule and there was no room for deviation from timetable. It showed. The result was that it was an almost total lack of spontaneity. Even those moment that were supposed to feel spontaneous – the speeches by the winners – felt as planned out by the producers. The only winner to be played off was Kyle Chandler and that’s because he started to walk off and then realised that he forgot to thank Connie Britton for five years as Mrs. Coach. With one exception – Outstanding Actress in a Comedy – they didn’t even let the presenters actually read the names of the nominees they were going to be presenting to. You know, just in case someone screws up a name or laughs or something. How anal retentive is that! And yet they somehow managed to find time for the guy who named the winners – just in case we missed it when the presenters said the names – to make silly lame jokes. We don’t want this. As Joe Friday never said “Just the facts man.”

There were a couple of major musical numbers. One by Lonely Island it didn’t understand at all. I felt like Temperance Brennan on Bones: “I don’t know what that is.” I had to look it up and as a result…I’m feeling old and I still don’t understand the link that the song had to television. The other musical number was The Canadian Tenors – who I’ve also never heard of – singing Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah” during the Memoriam sequence. Now you’ll excuse me for saying so but I dislike this tendency, seen here and at the Oscars, of having the Memoriam segment underscored with live singers, particularly when the show’s director cuts between the memorial clips and the singers, which is exactly what they did this time.

I suppose we should discuss Jane Lynch’s hosting duties at the Emmys. Given what was allotted to her, I guess that she did an adequate job. FOX tried to recreate the excitement of last year’s opening musical number based on “Born To Run” but it didn’t come off quite right. Or maybe I just missed it because I was plating my dinner (in a manner that would drive Gordon Ramsay to apoplexy). She had a brief monologue at the beginning and from time to time has a couple of jokes, some referring to her sexual orientation. She also had a sketch later in the show wearing a black wig about why New Jersey is the setting for so many shows – among them House, Real Housewives of New Jersey, and of course Jersey Shore. Suffice it to say there was also a reference to another show that took place in New Jersey which had a controversial final scene. On the whole I wish that Jane Lynch had been given more to do on the show. Or maybe just better stuff to do.

Turning to the actual winners, the Comedy categories were dominated by Modern Family. The show won in every comedy category except Outstanding Actor and Actress in a Comedy, and that’s only because the show’s ensemble cast was all nominated in the supporting categories. Ty Burrell won for Supporting Actor in a Comedy while his onscreen wife Julie Bowen won as Supporting Actress. In one of the only “spontaneous” moments in the broadcast Melissa McCarthy won as Outstanding Actress in a Comedy, and received a tiara and roses in addition to the Emmy over the winner of my reader poll, Amy Poehler. That was a real shocker, and unlike a lot of people I’m not going to say that she won it for the movie Bridesmaids rather than Mike & Molly. Steve Carell failed to win an Emmy for playing Michael Scott on The Office, losing to Jim Parsons from The Big Bang Theory, who won the reader poll unanimously.

The Variety, Music and Comedy Series awards were lumped together with the Reality-Competition Category. I don’t care much for the Variety, Music and Comedy categories, although I noted a couple of things; they cut the segments naming the writers in this category – often the funniest damned thing in whole damned Emmy Show – down to 15 seconds each, thereby eliminating virtually all of the humour in those bits; and The Daily Show with Jon Stewart won both of the categories and absolutely no one was shocked or surprised. Mostly they were resigned to the fact. The Amazing Race won the Reality-Competition Series category; the reader poll said So You Think You Can Dance, but then only three votes were cast.

The Drama categories were, for the most part surprising. Martin Scorcese won the directing Emmy for the first episode of Boardwalk Empire, and that shouldn’t be surprising until you realize that Scorsese has lost six Emmy in various categories before winning this one. The first big surprise was Jason Katims winning the Writing category for Friday Night Lights. You could say, “after five year’s of being as great as it was, it’s about time,” but considering that there were two episodes of Mad Men nominated – including “The Suitcase” – not to mention the highly touted Game of Thrones, well it was surprising. Peter Dinklage won for Game of Thrones in the rather weak Supporting Actor in a Drama category, while Margo Martindale won as Mags Bennett in Justified. In the days leading up to the actual awards she became a critical favourite for the Emmy in a category with some truly strong actresses. In maybe the only non-surprise in the Drama categories, Julianna Margulies won the Lead Actress Emmy for The Good Wife, just like my reader polls said she should (but again, only three votes; I wanted Elizabeth Moss to win). The biggest surprise maybe of the whole night came in the Lead Actor in a Drama category when Kyle Chandler won for playing Coach Eric Taylor on Friday Night Lights over Jon Hamm (my readers’ choice), Steve Buscemi and the others.

I have little interest in the Movie and Miniseries categories, mainly because I see so very few of the entries in the category, and inevitably one or two shows dominates the category. This year was no different; I was actually on the edge of falling asleep while these categories were being announced. Downton Abbey won for Writing and Directing, and Supporting Actress (Maggie Smith). HBO’s Mildred Pierce (which was mercilessly panned by many critics) won for Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce) and Lead Actress (Kate Winslet). The dominance of these two was broken when Canadian Barry Pepper won the Lead Actor for playing Robert Kennedy in The Kennedys.

This left us with the three "Best Show” categories. Despite the threat from Game of Thrones, and The Good Wife – which won my reader poll – Mad Men won the Outstanding Drama Series for the fourth straight year. Since it’s only been on for four years, perhaps we now know what it will take for something else to win the category – Mad Men just has to be ineligible (which it won’t be next year). Downton Abbey won for Outstanding Miniseries or Movie (*yawn*). Finally, in the last, and most shocking (not) award of the night Modern Family took the Emmy as Outstanding Comedy Series.

If I were to apply my usual yardstick for awards show – did the show feel as if it was longer or shorter than it actually was – then Sunday night’s Emmy Award Show was a failure. It felt like it went on a lot longer than it actually did. I’m convinced that the reason why it felt that way is that FOX stifled the spontaneity of the show. While the networks expect every awards show except the Oscars to fit into a strictly enforced three hour window, I think that FOX was so determined to make it run on schedule – and coincidentally to not cut anything that they had planned – that they sucked all of the fun of the unexpected out of it. And while blame for this sort of thing usually falls onto the host, it does not seem to me that Jane Lynch bears any responsibility for this one. This one is entirely FOX’s failure.

Poll Result - Outstanding Drama Series

For the final Emmy Poll of the year, I asked which show would win the Emmy as outstanding Drama Series. This time around there were more votes cast than in most of the polls this year, but two fewer than in the Comedy series poll.

Eight votes were cast. Receiving no votes were Boardwalk Empire, Dexter, and Friday Night Lights. Receiving two votes (25%) was Mad Men. And in a tie for the lead with three votes each (37.5%) were The Good Wife and Game Of Thrones.

This is a tough category for me. I’ve seen three of the shows – obviously not the two that are on HBO and not Dexter either. I’ve seen a couple of episodes of The Good Wife, and have watched both Friday Night Lights and Mad Men sporadically since they debuted. I will say that I’ve seen some episodes of this past season of Mad Men and found it excellent as always. In fact, if the nominations for Outstanding Drama Series were based on single episodes, as so many of the Emmy categories are, I think a great many people would support Mad Men if they nominated the episode “The Suitcase.” Viewed overall I personally think that Mad Men is one of the best shows on TV and if I had voted, it probably would have gotten my vote. And as good as Friday Night Lights has consistently been, I don’t think that it can overcome the handicaps that it faces having been on DirectTV and then being a bit of an afterthought for NBC. That leaves us with two HBO series and The Good Wife. I haven’t seen enough of The Good Wife to effectively judge how good it is, but I suspect that it will do better in the acting categories than it will here. Is the Academy going to reward a broadcast network show when there are so many cable shows including bridesmaid Mad Men? I’m afraid I have to discount the chances for Game Of Thrones because of the long-standing Emmy prejudice against Science Fiction and Fantasy genre shows. (But is that just my reaction to Fringe never having a nomination in any of the main Emmy categories.) By default then I think the big HBO contender is going to be Boardwalk Empire. The three most likely winners are Boardwalk Empire, The Good Wife and Mad Men and because I’ve seen more of Mad Men, that’s the one I’m going with.

Todd Mason has a different opinion:

THE GOOD WIFE has weak moments, but remains the best drama on US television, despite impressive work on the part of the folks at FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS and MAD MEN and DEXTER.
BOARDWALK EMPIRE has an excellent cast for the most part, and shows why an excellent cast can't carry a series without decent scripts.

For what it’s worth Todd (less than the price of a cup of tap water) I can see your point about The Good Wife, and maybe if I had watched more episodes I’d agree with you more whole heartedly, but I do love my Mad Men. As far as Boardwalk Empire is concerned, I agree with your general premise about an excellent cast needing decent scripts (and/or superior direction) but since I haven’t seen the show I will refrain on commenting on whether that’s the case with this show.

I want to have a new poll up for the “Cancellation Derby” in the next day or so, although it might turn out to be two polls running simultaneously for Comedy and Drama. Be back soon.